2025-06-12-Jefferies-迪尔公司（DE）_迪尔公司巴西分析师日_14页_1mb

报告摘要

Event Attended: R&D, factory, and farm tours in Brazil; focused on ag sector growth driven by food and biofuels.
Brazil as Key Market: Uniquely suited for tropical agriculture (2 crops/year vs. 1 in US/Europe); expects grain production ~70% growth through yield improvement and pastureland conversion (outside Amazon).
Deere Strategy: Increasing share via Brazil-specific equipment, tech, and dealership expansion (local production surged over past decade). Harvester share: 50-60%, large tractors ~40%.

Near-Term: Cautiously optimistic; recovery in Brazil (2024-25) may offset weaker crop prices. High interest rates (~18%) remain a challenge.
Long-Term: Brazil is the primary growth market. Deere targets growth over margins; 10% SaaS target seems ambitious.
Valuation: $520.84 price; target $510 (-2%). Market cap $141.6B. 52-week range: $340.20 - $533.78.

Revenue/Margins: FY2025 EPS ~$18.20. 2025E revenue $37.9B, margin pressure due to ~40% decremental margin.
Recurring Revenue: Minimal progress in SaaS/connected equipment, which may improve margins in downturns.
Brazil Specifics: 275 dealer locations (+2.7x since 2004); strong localization (local R&D, production, sales).

Opportunities: Dominant position in Brazil; potential from recurring revenue, technology.
Downside Risks: NA stagnation if crop prices volatile; NA dealer network pressure; right-to-repair pressures; SaaS margin challenges.
Long-Term Uncertainty: Recovery pace unclear; potential time lag for precision agriculture benefits.