2025-06-11-Jefferies-宝洁公司（PG）_提升自我的新计划；维持持有_目标价为160美元_11页_297kb

Procter & Gamble (P&G) is assigned a HOLD rating with a price target of $160, down from the previous $159, in this June 11, 2025, Jefferies equity research report. The analysis acknowledges P&G's two-year undertaking, which includes portfolio pruning and approximately 15,000 job cuts, as a positive step to free up capacity for focusing on core brands and mix-accretive innovations. However, the path to sustained growth remains unclear, and the company is expected to experience modest improvements in consumption trends but ongoing challenges like weak consumer sentiment, destocking, and soft retail scanner data. Fiscal year 2026 is projected to see 2.4% organic sales growth and a return to HSD% EPS growth in 2027, underpinned by SG&A savings of $325 million. The valuation of $160 is based on a forward P/E of 23x the estimated $6.97 EPS, reflecting limited upside catalysts and constrained P&L visibility. Bear and bull scenarios highlight risks from FX volatility, supply chain disruptions, and margin compression, contrasting with opportunities from sustainable innovations and targeted market growth. Key risks include unfavorable economic trends, input cost inflation, and execution uncertainties, while factors like consumer spending recovery and portfolio optimization could provide incremental support.