20210831-招银国际-Fantasia__Eyes_on_asset_and_stake_sales_4页_488kb

报告摘要

CMBI Credit Commentary Summary - FTHDGR

Core Content Overview

This document provides a credit commentary on Fantasia Group Holdings Limited (FTHDGR), focusing on its financial performance, refinancing needs, and potential asset and stake sales. The analysis is conducted by CMBI Fixed Income Department, highlighting the company's current position and outlook for its debt instruments.

Key Financial Performance

1H21 Results:
- Revenue increased by 1.5% to RMB11.0bn.
- Recurring operating profit + share of profit from associates decreased by 39.4% to RMB1.4bn.
- Gross margin dropped to 20.8% from 33.6% in 1H20.
- Contracted sales and ASP increased by 49.0% and 20.4% to RMB33.2bn and RMB16,166/sqm in 7M21, respectively.
- Fantasia guided that the gross margin would remain above 20% for FY21.

Asset and Stake Sales

Fantasia is actively exploring asset and stake sales to meet its refinancing requirements.
The company plans to convert URPs (Urban Renewal Projects) into land bank assets, which will support sales momentum and margin recovery.
URPs Projects:
- FY19 & FY20: Converted saleable resources of RMB5.8bn and RMB6.4bn, respectively.
- FY21: Target to convert 3 URPs (2 in Shenzhen, 1 in Huizhou) with total saleable resources of RMB7.9bn.
- FY22: Plans to convert 3 URPs (all in Shenzhen) with total saleable resources of RMB21.4bn.
- These projects will be available for pre-sales 6-12 months after conversion.

Refinancing and Capital Market Access

Fantasia faces significant refinancing requirements due to USD1.0bn of onshore and offshore bond maturities/redemption in FY21.
The company is expected to refinance USD762mn of USD bonds and USD150mn of trust loans before FYE21.
FTHDGR'21s are recommended as buy due to the company's ability to manage refinancing through cash reserves and asset sales.
FTHDGR'22s, '23s, and '24s are recommended as neutral due to uncertainty in asset-liability management plans.

Financial Profile

Net Debt: Increased by 7% to RMB20.4bn in Jun'21, with stable key credit ratios.
Net Gearing: Remained at 76.8% in Jun'21, slightly down from 77.3% in Dec'20.
Unrestricted Cash: At RMB27.2bn (cUSD4.2bn) as of Jun'21, which supports refinancing and debt repayment.
Free Cash Flow: Expected to be breakeven for FY21 due to revised down budgets for land acquisitions and construction.

Tender Offer and Exchange Considerations

Fantasia is in advanced discussions about tender offers and exchanges for longer-dated bonds.
Current valuations of longer-dated FTHDGRs have priced in significant downside, suggesting a distressed exchange.
The company aims to avoid rating downgrade and distressed exchange perception, emphasizing the importance of capital market access for future growth.

Contact Information

Glenn Ko, CFA (高志和): (852) 3657 6235 | glennko@cmbi.com.hk
Polly Ng (吴宝玲): (852) 3657 6234 | pollyng@cmbi.com.hk
Wilson Lu (路伟同): (852) 3761 8918 | wilsonlu@cmbi.com.hk
James Wen (温展俊): (852) 3757 6291 | jameswen@cmbi.com.hk
CMBI Fixed Income Department: fis@cmbi.com.hk

Important Disclosures

The report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Risks are involved in any securities transaction, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
CMBIS is not liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the report.
The report is subject to change and may include conflicting views or proprietary positions.
Distribution Restrictions apply to U.S., U.K., and Singapore investors based on their status and regulatory requirements.

Disclaimer

The report is intended for specific investors and is not suitable for all.
U.S. Investors: Not for retail distribution; only for "major US institutional investors".
U.K. Investors: Only for those falling under Article 19(5) or Article 49(2) of the Financial Promotion Order.
Singapore Investors: Distributed by CMBI (Singapore) Pte. Limited (CMBISG), an Exempt Financial Adviser, with legal responsibility limited to law requirements.

展开完整摘要