英文_DHL_海运市场更新——2025年7月_16页_1mb

OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET UPDATE - JULY 2025

Core Content Overview

The ocean freight market in July 2025 is characterized by a mix of volatility, regional disparities, and ongoing uncertainties due to trade policies and geopolitical events. The report highlights the impact of tariffs, port congestion, schedule reliability, and freight rates on global trade dynamics, with a focus on major trades and regional developments.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Demand Outlook

• Global Demand: Growth is expected to soften despite improved financial conditions. The demand is sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict.
• Transpacific Trade: April 2025 saw a 13.4% decline in volumes due to U.S. reciprocal tariffs. May 2025 reflects the full impact of these tariffs.
• Intra-Asia Growth: Driven by China-Vietnam trade, intra-Asia volumes are growing, while U.S. imports to Asia have declined.
• Europe: Volume in and out of Europe remains strong, with demand exceeding capacity in some routes.
• Demand vs. Capacity: There is a stop/go pattern in demand growth, influenced by tariffs. Some trades are in demand > capacity, others are balanced, and a few are demand < capacity.

2. Capacity Outlook

• Transpacific: Capacity has exceeded demand since mid-June, leading to blank sailings and falling spot rates.
• Asia-Europe: Capacity is aligned with demand, maintaining a robust market.
• Asia-South America (ECSA): Facing a capacity shortage, despite strong demand.
• Strategic Investment: China's investment in South American ports has increased scheduled capacity on the China-South America trade lane by +17M TEU from January to July 2025.

3. Freight Rates

• Transpacific: Spot rates on the West Coast (WC) are falling sharply, while East Coast (EC) rates are declining more slowly.
• Latin America: Strong demand into EC Latin America (EC LATAM) has led to +122% rate increases over the last 4 weeks, whereas WC Latin America (WC LATAM) follows the Transpacific trend.
• Rate Volatility: North-South route rates have faced significant cost volatility from May 2023 to May 2025, while intra-Asia rates have remained more stable.

4. Port Congestion

• North America: Congestion at major ports like LA/LB worsened, with 4% of capacity tied up. The number of waiting ships in San Pedro Bay increased from 33 to 37.
• Asia: Congestion is rising, especially in North Asia, with 36% of capacity affected. Qingdao's waiting ships increased from 80 to 113.
• Oceania: Congestion improved week-over-week, but 1% of capacity remains tied up.
• Europe: Congestion slightly improved, with 12% of capacity affected and 39 ships waiting at Rotterdam.
• Africa: Congestion remains minimal, with only 4% of capacity affected.
• Latin America: Congestion increased, with 13% of capacity tied up.

5. Schedule Reliability

• Global Reliability: Improved in May 2025, reaching 65.8%, the highest since November 2023. Year-over-year reliability increased by 10.0 percentage points.
• Volume-Weighted Reliability: Shows a 4.7% decline in reliability compared to traditional measures, especially on high-demand trades.
• Delays: Shippers experienced 0.2 days longer delays than standard measures in March 2025.
• Northern Europe: Port congestion is expected to cause shipping delays until August 2025.

6. Regulations & News

• U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs: Uncertainty remains regarding the outcome of the July 9th deadline, with potential for postponement and no clear legal binding.
• Empty Containers: Increased by 40.9% since pre-pandemic, while full container shipments grew only 9.7%, creating operational challenges and equipment shortages.

7. Market Developments

• GDP Growth: Expected to grow at 1.9% CAGR (2026-2029) globally. Regional growth varies, with Asia-Pacific (ASPA) projected at 3.9% and Europe at 1.7%.
• Bunker Prices: Influencing freight costs, with IFO and LSFO prices impacting carrier expenses.
• Carrier Alliances: Active until the end of January 2025, with new cooperation agreements from February onwards.

Summary Table of Major Trade Trends (July 2025)

Outlook

• Uncertainty: The impact of trade policies and geopolitical tensions continues to create uncertainty in the market.
• Volatility: Expected to persist, with rate fluctuations and operational challenges.
• Recommendation: Shippers are advised to plan for longer-term due to the unpredictable nature of the market.

Key Statistics

• Global container trade growth in March 2025: +11%
• Current orderbook: ~7.8 million TEU (81% of total) in new build orders.
• Drewry’s port handling growth forecast for 2025: 1.9%
• Empty containers repatriation: +40.9% since pre-pandemic
• Transpacific WC spot rates: Sharp decline due to excess capacity
• Volume-Weighted Reliability (March 2025): 5.4% worse than traditional measures

Conclusion

The ocean freight market in July 2025 is marked by regional disparities, tariff-related volatility, and ongoing port congestion. While some areas like Asia-Europe show robust demand and capacity alignment, others, particularly Transpacific and Asia-South America, face oversupply and capacity shortages. Schedule reliability has improved, but shipper experiences remain mixed due to delays on key routes. Uncertainty persists due to trade policies and geopolitical events, and long-term planning is strongly recommended.