世界海运市场预测-22页_1mb

Ocean Freight Market Update Summary (September 2023)

Report by DHL Global Forwarding, August 31, 2023

Key Highlights

• Record Ship Deliveries: High vessel deliveries in June (nearly 300,000 TEU), led by MSC (39% of deliveries). Maersk's market share dropped to 15%, while COSCO and others expanded. Future deliveries may reduce fleet renewal pressure.

Market Trends and Rates

• Asia-Pacific Exports: Rates surged due to pre-Golden Week demand; expected softening post-holiday. Blank sailings added capacity, but tight space conditions persist, with bookings advised 3-4 weeks in advance.
• Other Trades: Steep rate increases in some regions (e.g., Asia to WCSA); stable rates in others like EURO, with some declines driven by low demand or seasonal dips.

Economic and Demand Outlook

• Global Divergence: Economic indicators show weakening in regions like Eurozone and China, with stimulus expected in China. GDP growth is uneven; PMI data indicates contraction in manufacturing and services.
• Demand Development: High demand for Africa (especially East Africa) and intra-Asia, but softening in IPBC. Trade volumes projected slight growth over 2023-2027.

Capacity and Carrier Updates

• Carrier Growth: MSC and ZIM added most TEU capacity. Maersk continued fleet reductions. New alliances and services launched, including COSCO-ESE2 to South America.
• Blank Sailings: Extensive service cancellations (e.g., 10.8% in Central China-Europe loops) to balance capacity, with impacts on spot rates.

Regulatory and Environmental Changes

• Rules: Hong Kong Convention for ship recycling set to take effect 2025; GRI surcharges applied for some trades. Equipment challenges noted in ports like Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg.
• Shipping Decarbonization: IMO targets 40% GHG reduction by 2030 and net zero close to 2050. Biofuels and ammonia are key alternatives, with some carriers signing agreements for testing.

Projections

• Market Volume: Global container trade expected modest increase through 2027, with regional variations.
• Future Outlook: Suggests continued volatility, with potential rate softening in high-demand areas post-holiday.

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