2013年-世界发展银行全球_Economics_of_Tobacco_Toolkit_Tool_2_Data_for_Economic_Analysis_69页_1mb

Summary of the Tobacco Data Tool

I. Introduction

This tool is designed to guide researchers in the process of building databases for economic analysis, specifically in the context of tobacco control. It provides a structured approach to identifying, collecting, and preparing data that can be used to understand the economic and social dynamics of tobacco use and its related factors.

Who Can Use This Tool?

• Social scientists from various disciplines, including sociologists, economists, public policy researchers, and epidemiologists.
• Researchers at all levels, from seasoned professionals to students.
• Policy makers seeking evidence to support their agendas.

How This Tool Works

The tool follows a step-by-step approach to address data issues in economic analyses:

1. Step 1: Discusses the different types of available data.
2. Step 2: Identifies possible data sources.
3. Step 3: Defines and provides examples of key variables for aggregate and individual level analyses.
4. Step 4: Covers data preparation and analysis, including:
   • Evaluating and cleaning raw data
   • Transporting data into a statistical package
   • Quality checking data
   • Handling missing observations and outliers
   • Summarizing and plotting data
   • Recoding survey data into usable forms

II. Key Data Concepts

What's There to Know About Data?

Data can be categorized into different levels (individual, household, national) and types:

• Aggregate Time Series: Multiple years of aggregated national data.
• Aggregate Cross-Sectional: Single-point-in-time data based on national surveys.
• Pooled Time-Series: Combines multiple years of individual or household data.
• Longitudinal: Tracks the same individuals over time.

These data types are used to analyze the impact of economic and socio-demographic factors on tobacco supply and demand.

Where to Begin Looking?

Data can be sourced from:

• National agencies (e.g., Central Statistical Office)
• Government ministries (e.g., Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce)
• International organizations (e.g., World Bank, IMF, UN)
• NGOs (e.g., Action on Smoking and Health)
• Private companies (e.g., A.C. Nielsen)
• Select US agencies (e.g., CDC)

Aggregate Data

Most countries report basic national economic and social data, including:

• Consumption and sales of tobacco products
• Retail prices and taxes
• Imports and exports of raw and finished tobacco products
• Consumer expenditures and demographic characteristics

Aggregate data is useful for understanding overall economic status and performance, especially in relation to inflation and cost of living.

Consumption

Consumption data is essential for analyzing tobacco demand and can be obtained through:

• Household surveys
• Individual consumer surveys

Examples of questions include:

• "How many cigarettes a day do you smoke on average?"

There are two main forms of consumption data:

• Form A: Prevalence of Tobacco Use – Defines non-smokers and smokers based on reported behavior.
• Form B: Conditional Demand for Tobacco – Measures daily cigarette consumption among smokers using standardized categories.

Smoking Prevalence

Smoking prevalence is the percentage of the population who smoke. It can vary by country due to different definitions of "current smoker" (e.g., daily smoking for 6 months, smoking in the past 30 days).

Beware of Underreporting

• Underreporting is common in surveys, especially in societies with strong social disapproval of smoking.
• Survey-based consumption measures may not reflect actual sales due to factors like hoarding and black market activities.

Sales

Cigarette sales data (especially tax-paid sales) can serve as a proxy for consumption in aggregate models. However, it may not accurately reflect actual consumption due to:

• Black market activities
• Hoarding behavior

Tobacco Price

Tobacco prices are critical for economic analysis. They include:

• Retail price
• Excise taxes
• Ad valorem taxes
• VAT

Price elasticity of demand measures the responsiveness of consumption to price changes. It is calculated as:

$$
\frac{\text{Price Elasticity of Demand}}{} = \frac{% \text{Change in Cigarette Consumption}}{% \text{Change in the Price of Cigarettes}}
$$

Real versus Nominal Prices

• Nominal price: Actual price paid at a given time.
• Real price: Adjusted for inflation, typically calculated by dividing the nominal price by the CPI and multiplying by 100.

Excise tax data can be used as a proxy for price when direct price data is unavailable. Elasticities estimated from tax data must be converted to price elasticities for accurate interpretation.

Employment

Four types of employment data are necessary to understand the economic impact of tobacco:

1. Tobacco farming
2. Leaf marketing and processing
3. Cigarette manufacturing
4. Wholesaling and retailing

• In the US, employment data is available from the Bureau of the Census.
• In many developed countries, international organizations like the UN provide employment statistics.

Tobacco Leaf Processing

Leaf processing involves:

• Auctioning and warehousing
• Stemming and redrying

These steps are critical for tobacco production. In some countries, these activities may be integrated into other sectors (e.g., manufacturing), so they should not be counted separately.

Cigarette Manufacturing

Employment data in this sector is commonly available from:

• Government statistical offices
• International databases (e.g., UN's International Development Origination Database)

Cigarette Wholesaling and Retailing

• In monopolized industries, wholesaling is part of the manufacturing sector.
• In competitive markets, wholesaling is a separate activity, often tracked by:
  • Census of Wholesale Trade in the US
  • Other national or international sources in other countries

III. Conclusion

This tool outlines the essential steps and considerations for collecting and analyzing tobacco-related data. It emphasizes the importance of understanding data types, sources, and potential biases, while also highlighting the role of price, consumption, and employment data in economic analyses of tobacco use. The goal is to provide researchers with a clear framework to build accurate and meaningful databases for tobacco control studies.