2003年-世界发展银行全球_The_Economics_of_Tobacco_in_Egypt___A_New_Analysis_of_Demand_100页_680kb

Summary of "The Economics of Tobacco in Egypt: A New Analysis of Demand"

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the economics of tobacco in Egypt, focusing on demand patterns, price and income elasticities, and the broader implications of tobacco control policies. It is part of a series of World Bank and WHO Tobacco Free Initiative publications aimed at supporting evidence-based policy decisions in tobacco control.

Main Points

1. Tobacco Consumption Trends in Egypt

• Tobacco Consumption: Egypt has one of the highest rates of tobacco consumption in the Arab world.
• Cigarette Consumption: Cigarette consumption in Egypt increased significantly from 12,027 million sticks in 1970 to 51,814 million sticks in 1997.
• Smoking Prevalence: The number of smokers in Egypt has increased more than twice the population growth rate over the past 30 years.
• Per Capita Consumption: Per capita cigarette consumption declined between 1990 and 1995 due to price increases, but the trend reversed due to price freezes and rising incomes.

2. Economic Impact of Tobacco

• Health Costs: The direct annual cost of treating tobacco-related diseases in Egypt is estimated at LE 3 billion.
• Cancer Mortality: Among men, the percentage of cancer deaths attributed to tobacco increased from 8.9% in 1974 to 14.85% in 1987.
• Women's Smoking: While smoking rates among women are relatively low, they are increasing and pose a growing health threat.

3. Tobacco Industry Structure

• Monopoly: The public sector has a monopoly on cigarette production in Egypt.
• Major Player: The Eastern Tobacco Company (ETC) is the dominant cigarette manufacturer in the Middle East.
• Imports and Exports: Egypt imports most of its raw tobacco from India, China, Brazil, Italy, Syria, and the United States. It also exports cigarettes to neighboring countries.

4. Household Expenditure on Tobacco

• Data Sources: The study uses data from the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) household budget surveys from 1995/96 and 1999/2000.
• Expenditure Trends: Total household expenditure on cigarettes decreased from 5.86% to 5.14% of total expenditures, but spending on other tobacco products increased.
• Income Elasticity: Tobacco products are considered "normal" goods, with expenditure increasing as income rises. However, the income elasticity is less than 1, indicating that changes in income have a limited effect on tobacco consumption.
• Urban vs. Rural: Urban tobacco expenditure is less elastic than rural, suggesting lower sensitivity to price changes in urban areas.

5. Price Elasticity Analysis

• Price Elasticity: The price elasticity of cigarettes in Egypt is estimated at -0.397 (national), -0.412 (urban), and -0.385 (rural) based on 1999/2000 data.
• Income Quartiles: Higher income quartiles show greater price elasticity than lower ones, which contradicts economic theory and previous empirical studies.
• Impact of Price Increases: Simulations suggest that a price increase will lead to a significant reduction in cigarette consumption, while government revenues will increase due to the inelastic demand for tobacco.

6. Student Survey on Smoking

• Sample Size: 559 Cairo University students were surveyed.
• Smoking Rates: 51% of males and 12% of females had ever smoked; 22% of males and 2% of females currently smoked.
• Dual Use: 85.2% of current smokers used nargila (water pipe), with equal prevalence among men and women.
• Smoking Intensity: Males smoked an average of 14 cigarettes per day, while females smoked 6 per day.
• Expenditure: Males spent an average of LE 63 per month on cigarettes, while females spent LE 66.
• Intent to Quit: 82% of interviewed smokers wanted to quit.

7. Tobacco Control Policies in Egypt

• Current Measures: Egypt has laws against smoking in public places, bans on TV and radio advertising, weak health warnings, and limits on tar content.
• Enforcement Issues: These policies are not well enforced, which limits their effectiveness.
• Recent Developments: A national tobacco control coordinating committee has been formed, a national program developed, and campaigns targeting youth have been intensified.
• Future Needs: More comprehensive tobacco control measures, including higher cigarette prices, a complete ban on all tobacco advertising, and stronger enforcement of smoking bans, are needed to reduce tobacco use and its health impact.

Key Information

• Economic Impact: Tobacco use imposes a substantial economic burden on Egypt, particularly through health care costs.
• Policy Recommendations: Increasing tobacco taxes is a cost-effective way to reduce consumption and improve public health.
• Data Sources: The study relies on CAPMAS household surveys and student interviews to analyze demand and behavior.
• Regional Trends: Tobacco consumption is increasing in the Middle East and Africa, while decreasing in other regions.
• Public Health Concern: The report emphasizes the urgent need for stronger tobacco control policies to reduce the growing burden of tobacco-related diseases and premature deaths.

Conclusion

The study highlights the economic and health costs of tobacco use in Egypt and underscores the importance of price-based interventions in reducing consumption. It also calls for more comprehensive and effectively enforced tobacco control policies to address the rising prevalence of smoking, especially among women and youth.