2013年-世界发展银行全球_Economics_of_Tobacco_Toolkit_Tool_6___Equity_Issues_Tobacco_and_the_Poor_50页_979kb

Summary of the World Bank Economics of Tobacco Toolkit - Tool 6: Poverty

Core Content

This document discusses the economic and social implications of tobacco taxation on the poor, emphasizing the need to assess the fairness and impact of tobacco taxes on different income groups. It provides a framework for understanding how tobacco taxes can influence the standard of living, income distribution, and health outcomes among the poor.

Main Points

Tobacco Control and Its Impact on the Poor

• Tobacco control measures, such as increasing excise taxes, can significantly reduce tobacco consumption and save millions of lives.
• A 10% increase in tobacco prices could reduce consumption by 8%, potentially saving 10 million lives by 2030.
• Raising tobacco taxes is often criticized as unfair to the poor, as it may increase inequality and reduce their real incomes.
• However, the effectiveness of non-tax measures like advertising bans, clean indoor air laws, and health warnings is limited without tax increases.

Income and Tobacco Consumption

• In developed countries, lower-income individuals tend to have higher tobacco consumption rates.
• In low- and middle-income countries, overall smoking prevalence is higher than in high-income countries, with some exceptions like sub-Saharan Africa.
• Within these countries, tobacco consumption often increases with income, indicating a complex relationship between income and tobacco use.

Poverty and Income Quintiles

• Poverty is defined as economic deprivation and can be identified using income quintiles.
• The lowest quintile (20% of the population) is typically considered the poor.
• In low-income countries, the second lowest quintile may also be included as part of the poor.
• Adjusting for family size is important when comparing income and consumption across quintiles.

Income Share and Expenditure Elasticity

• Income share is calculated as the ratio of tobacco expenditures to total income.
• Expenditure elasticity measures how tobacco expenditures change in response to income changes.
• A high income share indicates a significant portion of the household budget is spent on tobacco, making tax increases more impactful.

Tobacco Tax Fairness

• Tobacco taxes can be regressive, meaning they take a larger share of income from lower-income groups.
• Income elasticity of tobacco consumption can be less than zero (inferior good) or between zero and one (normal good), influencing how taxes affect different income levels.
• The marginal progressivity of a tax system is an important factor in assessing its fairness to the poor.

Standard of Living and Tax Impact

• Higher tobacco taxes can reduce the standard of living by affecting both the use and sources of income.
• The impact on household expenditures (shelter, food, clothing) is an important consideration in assessing welfare effects.
• The Gini coefficient is used to measure income inequality before and after tax implementation.

Poverty and Tobacco-Related Illness

• Tobacco-related illnesses disproportionately affect the poor, who are more likely to smoke and have limited access to healthcare.
• Estimating the health impact of tobacco taxes involves calculating tobacco-related deaths and disability-adjusted life years lost.

Tax Incidence and Data Requirements

• Tax incidence refers to how the burden of a tax is distributed across different income groups.
• To analyze the impact of tobacco taxes, detailed survey data on income distribution and consumption patterns is required.
• In the absence of such data, stylized assumptions and proxies like education levels can be used.

Key Information

Definitions

• Poverty: Economic deprivation, often defined using income quintiles.
• Income: Defined as consumption plus savings, based on the Hague-Simon definition.
• Income Quintiles: Five equal groups of the population based on income distribution.

Data Sets

• Good Data Sets: Must include annual income and tobacco expenditure data, and account for family size and household composition.
• Poor Data Sets: May use education levels as a proxy for income, given their correlation.

Assumptions and Requirements

• The document assumes the poor are a vulnerable group and requires detailed survey data for accurate analysis.
• Readers should have a background in economics, statistics, and tax administration.
• Familiarity with software like SAS or SPSS is recommended for handling large datasets.

Conclusion

Tobacco taxation can have significant implications for the poor, both in terms of economic burden and health outcomes. While increasing tobacco taxes is an effective public health measure, it must be carefully analyzed to ensure it does not disproportionately harm low-income households. This Toolkit provides a structured approach to evaluating these impacts using statistical and economic methods, and encourages the use of complementary non-tax policies to enhance equity and effectiveness.

Additional References

• World Bank Report (1999)
• Sen (1982)
• U.S. Census Poverty Definition (www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/povdef.html)
• World Bank Development Indicators (www.worldbank.org/poverty/data/wdi2000/pdfs/table2_7.pdf)
• Poterba (1989)

Tables and Figures

• Table 6.1: Incremental Tax Ratio
• Table 6.2: Ratio of Incremental Tax Income Shares
• Table 6.3: Impact of Tobacco Taxes on Income
• Table 6.4: Income Share Difference for Pre-Tax Income
• Table 6.5: Income Share Difference for Post-Tax Income

This summary provides a structured overview of the document's content, key concepts, and analytical approaches to evaluating the impact of tobacco taxes on poverty and equity.