2013年-世界发展银行全球_Economics_of_Tobacco_Toolkit_Tool_5___Understand_and_Evaluate_the_Impact_of_Tobacco_Control_Policies_on_Employment_53页_1005kb

Summary of the Economics of Tobacco Toolkit: Tool 5 - Tobacco Control

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of tobacco control policies on employment, offering both a critique of industry-sponsored studies and insights from academic research. It is designed to assist researchers, public health practitioners, and policymakers in understanding the employment implications of tobacco control and in formulating more effective policies that account for both public health benefits and potential employment consequences.

Main Purpose

The primary purpose of this tool is to:

• Provide information to policymakers who are hesitant to implement tobacco control measures due to employment concerns.
• Present a counterpoint to the arguments made by the tobacco industry.
• Help in developing more effective policies that consider the negative impact on certain groups.

Key Definitions

• Tobacco Industry: A distinguished group of economic activities directly involved in the production, distribution, and retailing of tobacco leaf and tobacco products. It includes the agriculture, manufacturing, and wholesale/retail sectors.
• Sector: A subset of the tobacco industry, such as agriculture, manufacturing, or distribution.
• Activity: A group of related actions within a sector, such as leaf production, processing, and marketing.
• Assumptions and Requirements: The tool assumes that tobacco-related economic activities play a significant role in employment and requires access to detailed employment statistics and input-output tables for accurate analysis.

Key Findings

• Tobacco Industry-Sponsored Studies: These studies often overestimate the number of jobs directly and indirectly associated with the tobacco industry and fail to account for the reallocation of resources and the creation of new jobs in other sectors. They also tend to ignore the impact of reduced tobacco use on employment in related areas such as healthcare, cleaning, and air filtration.
• Academic Studies: These studies provide a more accurate assessment of the net employment impact of tobacco control. They suggest that reducing tobacco use leads to a net gain in employment, as the money saved from tobacco spending is redirected to other sectors. For example:
  • Scotland: Net gain of 7,869 jobs in 1989.
  • Michigan State: Net gain of 5,600 jobs in 1992 and 1,500 by 2005.
  • US: Net gain of 47 jobs in 1993 and 133,000 by 2000.
  • UK: Net gain of 15,542 jobs in 1990.
  • Canada: Net loss of 6,129 jobs in 1995.
  • South Africa: Net gain of 50,236 jobs in 1995.
  • Bangladesh: Net gain of 1,098,919 jobs in 1994.

Methodological Considerations

• Measuring Employment: The tool outlines methods for estimating employment directly and indirectly linked to the tobacco industry, including direct counting and indirect estimation using stylized assumptions.
• Input-Output Analysis: This is a key method for evaluating the impact of tobacco control policies on employment. It involves:
  • Using input-output tables to simulate the effects of reduced tobacco consumption.
  • Considering both direct and indirect employment impacts.
  • Accounting for changes in consumer spending and government expenditure.
• Data Requirements: Access to national or regional input-output tables, employment statistics, and consumer expenditure patterns is essential for conducting a thorough analysis.

Critique of Industry-Sponsored Studies

• Overestimation of Job Losses: These studies often count all jobs linked to the tobacco industry, including indirect and expenditure-induced jobs, leading to an inflated estimate of job losses.
• Short-Term Focus: They tend to focus on short-term impacts, while the academic studies consider long-term adjustments in the economy.
• Ignoring Reallocation: They fail to account for the reallocation of resources and the creation of new jobs in other sectors as a result of reduced tobacco consumption.

Policy Implications

• Tobacco control measures primarily affect jobs directly related to the tobacco industry.
• The economy is capable of adjusting to reduced tobacco demand, reallocating resources and labor to other sectors.
• The opportunity cost of resources used in tobacco production is not zero, as these resources can be used for other purposes.
• Policy makers should consider both the direct and indirect employment impacts and use rigorous methods like input-output analysis to assess the true impact of tobacco control.

How to Use the Tool

1. Understand Key Information: Familiarize yourself with definitions, assumptions, and data requirements.
2. Review Previous Studies: Learn about the methodologies and findings of both industry-sponsored and academic studies.
3. Apply Measuring Techniques: Use direct counting and indirect estimation methods to identify and quantify tobacco-related employment.
4. Conduct Input-Output Analysis: Follow step-by-step instructions to simulate the employment impact of tobacco control policies.
5. Report Results: Use appropriate formats and consider alternative approaches to quantitative policy analysis.
6. Consult Additional References: Review the extensive list of references for further understanding.

Conclusion

The document concludes that tobacco control policies, while reducing tobacco use, do not necessarily lead to a significant loss in employment. In fact, they can result in a net gain in employment as resources are reallocated to other sectors. The tool emphasizes the importance of using objective, methodologically sound analyses to counter industry claims and support informed policy decisions.