2013年-世界发展银行全球_Kazakhstan___Solid_Growth_Unsettled_Global_Environment_-_Kazakhstan_Economic_Update_Fall_2013_36页_895kb

Kazakhstan Economic Update Summary (Fall 2013)

Core Content

Kazakhstan experienced solid economic growth in 2013 despite an unsettled global environment. The economy was driven by services, with oil production recovering and private consumption and investment activity supported by credit expansion. The country also made progress in reducing poverty and sharing prosperity, with the government focusing on long-term development objectives such as becoming one of the top 30 developed countries by 2050.

Main Points

A. Refocusing the Long-Term Development Objectives

• Institutional and Human Capital Development: The government aims to transform Kazakhstan into a knowledge-based economy through improved institutions and human capital.
• Integration into the World Economy: Regional and multilateral integration is seen as a key strategy to reduce external risks and enhance economic stability.
• Diversification: The president emphasized the need to diversify the economy away from natural resources to reduce vulnerability to external shocks.
• Green Growth Strategy: Kazakhstan plans to increase the use of renewable energy to 50% of total energy sources by 2050 and reduce power intensity by 2.5–3.5% annually.

B. Gaining from a Strong Macroeconomic Performance

• Economic Growth Drivers: Services were the main driver of economic growth, with oil output recovering and private consumption supported by credit expansion.
• Poverty Reduction: Rapid per-capita income growth led to a significant drop in poverty rates, both at the national and international poverty lines.
• Shared Prosperity: The growth in consumption per capita for the bottom 40% of the population outperformed the national average, indicating more equitable growth.
• Inflation Control: Inflation was kept within the central bank's target range, with non-tradable services contributing more to inflation than tradable goods.
• Exchange Rate Stability: The tenge depreciated in line with the Russian ruble, reflecting less favorable trade terms and a shift to a more flexible exchange rate regime.

C. Building on Favorable Medium-Term Prospects

• Oil Sector Dominance: The oil sector remains a key driver of economic growth, with the Kashagan oil field expected to start production in late 2013.
• Fiscal and External Balance: The fiscal balance is projected to remain strong, while the current account may deteriorate due to increased oil export repatriation.
• Growth Outlook: Economic growth is expected to reach around 6% annually in 2014–2015, driven by the oil sector and improved non-oil activity.
• Structural Transformation: To ensure long-term sustainability, Kazakhstan needs to improve productivity through structural reforms and diversify its economy.

D. Implementing Structural Reforms

• Institutional Reforms: The government is working on improving public finance management (PFM), the regulatory framework, and the justice system.
• Human Capital Agenda: Efforts include modernizing the education system, enhancing healthcare, and reforming the pension system.
• Public-Private Partnership (PPP): The government is promoting PPPs to support development and improve the business environment.
• Regulatory Improvements: Reforms are aimed at reducing administrative barriers and improving transparency and accountability in state-owned enterprises.

E. Integrating into the Global Economy

• Trade Policy Objectives: Kazakhstan is focusing on enhancing its trade policy to benefit from regional and global integration.
• Customs Union (CU) Integration: The country joined the CU in 2010, which has led to trade adjustments, including a shift in import sources from the EU to China.
• World Trade Organization (WTO) Membership: Joining the WTO is expected to provide additional benefits, but requires reducing the burden of non-tariff measures (NTMs) and improving institutional capacity.
• Free Trade Agreements (FTAs): The government is pursuing several FTAs to further integrate into the global economy.

Key Information

• GDP Growth: Estimated at 5.8% for 2013, with projections of 6% for 2014–2015.
• Oil Production: Increased by 3% year-on-year in 2013, with the Kashagan field expected to add 75,000 barrels per day by year-end.
• Poverty Reduction: Poverty fell from 5.5% in 2012 to 3.8% in 2013 (national line), and from 41% to 4% (international line) between 2001 and 2009.
• Inflation: Stood at 5.8% in August 2013, driven by non-tradable services.
• Exchange Rate: The tenge depreciated in line with the Russian ruble, with a new flexible peg introduced in 2013.
• Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): The NPL ratio remained high at 30% in July 2013, with only marginal improvement.
• Current Account: Expected to shift to a small deficit in 2014, widening to $3 billion (1.3% of GDP) and $4 billion (1.7% of GDP) in 2015.
• Monetary Reserves: Fell to $24 billion in September 2013, while fiscal reserves increased due to the National Fund's accumulation.
• Trade Adjustments: Exports remain dominated by mining and petroleum products, while imports have shifted towards China and other regional partners.

Challenges

• Oil Dependency: Continued reliance on oil exposes Kazakhstan to external shocks.
• Problem Loans: High NPLs remain a drag on the economy, with limited progress in resolving them.
• Global Economic Uncertainty: The country faces risks from potential crises in the EU, US, and China, which could impact its export demand and economic stability.

Opportunities

• Regional Integration: Continued integration into the CU and potential WTO membership can enhance trade and economic opportunities.
• Institutional and Human Capital Development: Strengthening institutions and improving human capital are critical for long-term growth and diversification.
• Green Growth: Transitioning to renewable energy and reducing power intensity will support sustainable development.

Conclusion

Kazakhstan has demonstrated strong economic performance in 2013, with services and private consumption as key growth drivers. However, the country faces challenges related to oil dependency, high NPLs, and global economic uncertainty. To ensure long-term growth and stability, the government must continue implementing structural reforms, enhance institutional capacity, and diversify the economy. Integration into global and regional trade agreements, along with improvements in public finance management and human capital development, will be essential for achieving the long-term vision of becoming a developed country by 2050.