2017年-世界发展银行全球_Kazakhstan_Country_Economic_Update_Fall_2017___The_Economy_is_Rising_It_is_Still_All_About_Oil_30页_2mb

Kazakhstan Country Economic Update - Fall 2017 Summary

Core Content

Kazakhstan's economy experienced growth in the first nine months of 2017, driven primarily by the expansion of the oil sector and improved external conditions. The growth was supported by increased oil production, particularly from the Kashagan offshore oil field, and higher oil prices, which had positive spillover effects on the non-oil economy. However, the growth rate remained below the pre-crisis level, and the outlook for the medium term suggests a stabilization around 3% annual GDP growth.

Main Points

• Economic Growth: Real GDP growth accelerated to 4.3% year-on-year in 2017, compared to 0.4% in the same period of 2016. This was largely due to the oil sector's expansion and improved domestic demand.
• Inflation: Headline inflation dropped significantly, from over 17% in Q3 2016 to below 8% in 2017. However, inflationary pressures increased in late 2017 due to currency depreciation and higher gasoline prices, which rose to 40% imported from Russia in USD.
• Currency Depreciation: The tenge continued to depreciate despite oil price recovery, which increased inflation and devaluation expectations. The de-dollarization trend reversed in June 2017, prompting the NBK to intervene in the foreign exchange market.
• Balance of Payments: The overall balance of payments deteriorated in 2017, with the current account deficit narrowing slightly and the capital and financial account balance declining. The NBK's interventions and the bailout of ailing banks contributed to this trend.
• Nonperforming Loans (NPLs): NPLs rose sharply, with the official share of NPLs to total loans increasing from 6.7% in late 2016 to 12.7% in September 2017. Moody's estimated NPLs to be even higher, highlighting the need for continued NPL clean-up.
• Banking Sector: Lending to the nonfinancial sector remained flat, with a decline in FX credit and short-term credit. Recapitalization efforts continued, with the NBK allocating KZT 500-700 billion to support struggling banks.
• Fiscal Policy: The government continued fiscal consolidation, reducing the nonoil deficit to an estimated 8.6% of GDP in 2017. It planned to further reduce the nonoil deficit to below 8.5% in 2018 and cut Oil Fund consumption.
• Structural Reforms: The government emphasized the need for structural reforms to diversify the economy and promote a more vibrant non-oil sector. These included the privatization of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the implementation of the 100 Concrete Steps program.
• Poverty and Vulnerability: Poverty remained sensitive to oil price shocks, with the poverty rate increasing in 2015 due to declining real wages. Rural areas were more vulnerable, and the share of the vulnerable population increased during the same period.

Key Information

• Oil Sector Impact: The oil sector's expansion was the main driver of economic growth, with the Kashagan field's production launch in 2016 playing a crucial role. The sector also contributed to a higher GDP growth rate through increased exports to the EU.
• Monetary Policy: The NBK gradually reduced its policy rate from 12% to 10.25% in 2017, but later paused further easing due to inflationary pressures and tenge depreciation. The NBK also injected capital into banks to support their balance sheets.
• Private Sector Development: The private sector remains underdeveloped, with SMEs lagging behind other country groups. Efforts to restructure and privatize SOEs are expected to improve efficiency and reduce fiscal risks.
• Public Investment: Public investment increased by over 13% in real terms in the first nine months of 2017, driven by the EXPO-2017 event. However, government transfers to SOEs decreased, contributing to fiscal consolidation.
• Social Indicators: Income from wage employment was the main driver of poverty reduction, but the 2015 economic contraction led to a significant increase in poverty, particularly among the working poor. The country's reliance on oil exports made it vulnerable to price fluctuations.

Economic Outlook and Risks

• Outlook: The economy is expected to grow at around 3% annually in the medium term as the oil sector's contribution to growth declines relative to 2017.
• Risks: Potential weakening of the external environment, escalation of banking sector problems, and a failure to deepen structural reforms could negatively impact growth and stability.

Structural Reforms and Development Agenda

• Reforms: Structural reforms are essential for sustainable and inclusive growth. They should focus on reducing the state's role in the economy and promoting a modern, innovative non-oil sector.
• Implementation: The success of these reforms will depend on the government's ability to restructure and privatize SOEs, improve public administration efficiency, and support the private sector through prudent fiscal and monetary policies.

Conclusion

Despite growth driven by the oil sector, Kazakhstan faces significant challenges in diversifying its economy and reducing vulnerability to oil price shocks. Continued fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and effective monetary policy are critical to achieving long-term economic stability and growth. The country's social indicators highlight the need for targeted interventions to support vulnerable populations and reduce poverty.