2015年-世界发展银行全球_Kazakhstan_Economic_Update_Fall_2015___Adjusting_to_Lower_Oil_Prices--Challenging_Times_Ahead_32页_1mb

Kazakhstan Economic Update Summary (Fall 2015)

Core Content

This document provides an economic update for Kazakhstan, focusing on the country's response to the decline in global oil prices and the resulting economic challenges during the first nine months of 2015. It outlines recent political developments, economic performance, macroeconomic policies, structural reforms, and the outlook for the country's economy.

Main Points

Political Developments

• President Nursultan Nazarbayev was re-elected in April 2015 for a new five-year term, showing continued political stability.
• The government launched a new wave of structural reforms, including the "One Hundred Concrete Steps, a Modern State for All" program, aimed at improving governance, public transparency, and economic diversification.
• These reforms are part of Kazakhstan's long-term development strategy, Kazakhstan 2050, which seeks to build a more diversified, knowledge-based economy led by the private sector.

Economic Developments

• Kazakhstan's GDP growth slowed significantly, from 4.1% in the same period of 2014 to an estimated 1% in the first nine months of 2015.
• The drop in oil prices (over 50% between June 2014 and October 2015) had a major negative impact on export revenues, which fell from US$62.7 billion in 2014 to US$36.4 billion in 2015.
• The trade surplus narrowed, and the current account moved into deficit, reflecting reduced external demand for Kazakh exports.
• Industrial output declined, while the service sector growth slowed. Mining and oil refining were particularly affected due to lower demand from key trading partners like China and Russia.
• Agriculture showed modest growth, but overall economic activity was constrained by the oil price slump and weak external demand.

Macroeconomic Policies

• The government implemented a fiscal adjustment to counter the oil price shock, reducing or delaying non-priority capital expenditures and cutting on-budget spending.
• The state budget deficit was kept within 3% of GDP in 2015, thanks to these adjustments.
• The central bank tightened monetary policy to defend the pegged exchange rate regime, leading to a real appreciation of the tenge and increased dollarization of deposits.
• In August 2015, the exchange rate regime was shifted to a floating rate, and the monetary policy transitioned to an inflation-targeting regime.
• The fiscal consolidation plan includes reducing public investment spending, delaying salary increases, and revising industrial support programs.
• The government is also exploring tax policy reforms and customs and tax administration improvements to increase non-oil revenues.

Structural Reforms

• Structural reforms are a key component of Kazakhstan's long-term strategy to diversify the economy and reduce reliance on oil exports.
• The Nurly Zhol program is a major infrastructure initiative, but some capital expenditures were delayed or reduced to maintain fiscal discipline.
• The government is also working on institutional reforms, capacity building, human capital development, and improving the business environment to boost productivity and competitiveness in the non-oil sector.

Outlook

• Under the baseline scenario, oil prices are expected to remain low through 2016 and gradually recover in 2017, supporting a rise in GDP growth to about 3.3% in 2017.
• The low-case scenario assumes further oil price declines, which would worsen the fiscal and external positions and depress domestic demand and GDP growth.
• Domestic oil production is expected to increase in 2017, particularly from the Kashagan field, improving fiscal and current account balances.
• Despite the economic slowdown, labor market indicators and poverty rates showed improvement, with the unemployment rate falling and the national poverty rate declining to 2.7% in Q2 2015.
• However, downside risks remain, including delays in Kashagan production, a protracted Russian recession, and a further slowdown in China.

Key Information

• Oil prices dropped significantly, affecting export revenues, fiscal balance, and inflation.
• Inflation fell to a historical low of 3.8% in August 2015 but rebounded to 9.4% in October due to exchange rate adjustments and removal of price controls.
• The exchange rate was pegged until August 2015, when it was moved to a floating regime.
• FDI inflows declined in 2015, contributing to a worsening external balance.
• The government has revised its budget to reflect lower oil prices and implement fiscal consolidation.
• The non-oil deficit increased from 10.5% of GDP in 2014 to 13% in 2015, but is expected to narrow to 9% by 2017.
• Structural reforms are critical to sustaining economic growth and diversification.

Focus Section: Attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

• The government is working to attract FDI to support economic diversification and growth.
• FDI inflows in 2015 were US$3.6 billion, down from US$7.6 billion in the first nine months of 2014.
• FDI is concentrated in energy and mining, with metallurgy being a key subsector.
• The geographic composition of FDI inflows shows stronger inflows from Europe and Central Asia.
• The government is implementing investment incentives and policy reforms to improve the investment climate and attract more FDI.

Conclusion

Kazakhstan is navigating a challenging economic environment due to low oil prices and declining external demand. The government has taken fiscal and monetary adjustments to maintain price and exchange rate stability, and is working on structural reforms to diversify the economy and improve non-oil sectors. While economic growth and poverty reduction have slowed, the long-term outlook remains positive if the reforms are successfully implemented. The transition to a floating exchange rate and inflation targeting are key steps in this process, and the government's commitment to sustainable fiscal management and non-oil development is critical for future economic resilience.