2013年-世界发展银行全球_Kazakhstan_-_On_the_Crest_of_the_Oil_Wave___Kazakhstan_Economic_Update_Spring_2013_40页_947kb

报告摘要

Kazakhstan: On the Crest of the Oil Wave

Core Content

Kazakhstan has experienced significant economic growth driven primarily by its oil sector and favorable commodity prices, but faces challenges in diversifying its economy and improving labor skills to sustain long-term development. The country aims to join the top 30 developed countries by 2050, which has led to political and economic realignment.

Main Points

A. Recent Political Developments

Kazakhstan-2050 Vision: President Nazarbayev introduced a long-term strategy aiming for Kazakhstan to become one of the top 30 developed countries by 2050.
Government Reforms: The government structure was realigned to support the new strategy, including the establishment of a Ministry for Regional Development (MRD) and expansion of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection (MLSP).
New Government Role: Emphasis was placed on privatization through initial public offerings (IPOs), improving the professional state apparatus, and promoting regional and global integration.

B. Recent Economic Developments

GDP Growth: Real GDP growth slowed from 7.5% in 2011 to 5.0% in 2012 due to supply constraints in industry and agriculture.
Sector Contributions: Services sector growth (10% y/y) supported GDP expansion, while industrial and agricultural output declined.
Private Consumption: Private consumption remained a key driver of growth, growing at 9-10% y/y since 2010, supported by high oil export revenues.
Import Growth: Real imports increased significantly, contributing to a negative net export impact on GDP growth.
GDP Proxy Indicator: The first two months of 2013 showed a slowdown in GDP growth, with the construction sector contracting by 5.6% y/y.

C. Recent Economic Policies

Fiscal Policy: Conservative fiscal policies led to the accumulation of oil revenue savings, reaching $65 billion or 32.5% of GDP by the end of 2012.
Monetary Policy: An accommodative monetary policy supported domestic credit, but non-performing loans (NPLs) remained a constraint on bank lending.
NPL Management: Efforts are being made to improve the insolvency regime and resolve the NPL crisis, which affected the banking sector's ability to provide credit to the non-oil sector.
Banking Sector: Despite reported capital adequacy and liquidity, NPLs remain high at 37% of total loans, limiting credit expansion.

D. Ongoing Structural Reforms

Doing Business Rankings: Kazakhstan's ranking in the Doing Business report has shown a positive trend.
Trade Integration: The country is working to integrate into the Eurasian Common Economic Space and the World Trade Organization (WTO), which has changed its trade landscape.
Public Sector Reforms: A multifaceted public sector management reform is underway to improve efficiency and service delivery.
Pension System Reform: The government plans to reform the pension system to ensure long-term sustainability and support economic development.

E. Outlook

Oil Production: Offshore oil production, such as the Kashagan project, is expected to double oil output in 15 years, supporting GDP growth in the medium term.
Oil Prices: Oil prices are expected to remain stable at around $102 per barrel, maintaining favorable terms of trade.
Fiscal and Current Account Surpluses: Twin surpluses in the current account and fiscal balances are expected to continue, supported by strong external conditions.
Development Prospects: Long-term success depends on diversification of endowments—human, physical, and institutional capital—and the promotion of a green growth strategy.

F. Special Focus: Skills Mismatch in Kazakhstan

Employment Growth: Employment has increased steadily, with 8.5 million people employed by end 2012.
Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate fell below 5.5% of the labor force in recent years.
Skills Gap: A significant skills mismatch exists, with a shortage of workers with higher and vocational education.
Education Quality: Students underperformed in PISA tests, with an average reading score below the OECD average.
Need for Reform: Improving the quality of education and aligning it with market demands is essential to address the skills mismatch and enhance the business environment.

Key Information

Currency: Kazakhstan Tenge (KZT), with 1 USD = 150.84 KZT as of March 31, 2013.
Exchange Rate: The real exchange rate of the tenge was kept almost flat in 2012, while the nominal rate depreciated by 1.7% y/y.
Fiscal Reserves: Oil revenue savings reached $65 billion, or 32.5% of GDP, by the end of 2012.
Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): NPLs stood at 37% of total loans as of end 2012, constraining bank lending.
Trade Partners: The EU remains the largest trading partner, while China has become a significant export destination despite the customs union.
Customs Union Impact: The customs union with Russia and Belarus has shifted import composition towards Russia, but trade with China continues to expand.

Summary of Figures and Tables

Figures

Figure 1: Services underpinned GDP growth, while goods production contribution was down.
Figure 2: Domestic consumption remains a key driver of GDP expansion.
Figure 3: Economic activity in Kazakhstan weakened during the first two months of 2013.
Figure 4: Residential housing construction declined, negatively impacting GDP growth.
Figure 5: Regulated prices became the main contributors to inflation hike in recent months.
Figure 6: Money supply growth moderated during 2012.
Figure 7: Official reserves increased further, supported by the strong external position.
Figure 8: The real exchange rate was kept almost flat despite oil price fluctuations.
Figure 9: The customs union changed the foreign trade landscape of Kazakhstan.
Figure 10: Trade with China expanded further despite the customs union.
Figure 11: The share of unemployed fell below 5.5% of the total labor force.
Figure 12: Agriculture employs a significant share of the population.
Figure 13: Government spending is under control, while oil revenues remain high.
Figure 14: Oil revenue savings exceeded 32% of GDP, creating the biggest fiscal buffer ever.
Figure 15: The refinance rate was cut by 200 basis points in 2012 to stimulate growth.
Figure 16: Domestic credit to the economy expanded but remains largely depressed.
Figure 17: Problem loans are well provisioned but constrain banks' lending ability.
Figure 18: BTA remains the biggest outlier in terms of non-performing loans.
Figure 19: Offshore Kashagan oil will double oil production in 15 years.
Figure 20: Oil prices are expected to remain stable at around $102 per barrel.
Figure 21: Offshore oil production will support GDP growth over the medium term.
Figure 22: Twin fiscal and current account surpluses are expected to continue.
Figure 23: There is a shortage of workers with higher and vocational education.
Figure 24: The quality of labor skills is a major obstacle for doing business.
Figure 25: Students in Kazakhstan underperformed in PISA tests compared to their peers.
Figure 26: The average reading score in Kazakhstan is relatively poor.

Tables

Table 1: Balance of Payments (2008-2012) showing the current account surplus and trade balances.
Table 2: Government Fiscal Accounts (2008-2012) indicating the fiscal surplus and oil revenue accumulation.
Table 3: Doing Business Indicators (2011-2013) highlighting improvements in the business environment.

Boxes

Box 1: Outlines the main features of the 'Kazakhstan-2050' strategy, including seven focus areas.
Box 2: Discusses the potential economic benefits and risks of greater trade integration.
Box 3: Explains the current pension system in Kazakhstan and its implications for economic development.

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