2015年-世界发展银行全球_Kazakhstan_Economic_Update_No_1_Spring_2015___Low_Oil_Prices--An_Opportunity_to_Reform_28页_2mb

Kazakhstan Economic Update Summary (Spring 2015)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of Kazakhstan's macroeconomic, political, and structural developments in 2014 and early 2015, highlighting the impact of low oil prices and the government's response through fiscal and monetary policies.

Main Points

Economic Performance

• GDP Growth: Slowed significantly in 2014 from 6.0% in 2013 to an estimated 4.3%, and is projected to drop to 1.3% in 2015.
• Domestic Demand: Declined sharply after the February 2014 tenge devaluation, affecting private consumption and investor confidence.
• Sectoral Growth: Industrial output growth slowed to 0.2% in 2014, while the service sector continued to be a key driver of growth, albeit at a slower pace.
• Agriculture: Grew marginally by 0.8% in 2014.

Labor Market and Poverty

• Unemployment: Official unemployment fell from 5.2% in 2013 to 5.0% in 2014, driven by job creation in the services sector.
• Poverty Reduction: Poverty incidence dropped from 3.8% in 2012 to 2.8% in 2014, with rural areas being more affected.
• Internal Migration: Continued migration from rural to urban areas, where better-paid jobs and higher living standards are found, helped reduce poverty.

Fiscal Policy

• Economic Support Programs: Two major programs were launched in 2014, totaling 1 trillion tenge (about US$5.5 billion), to address non-performing loans and support SMEs.
• Fiscal Adjustment: The 2015 Republican budget was cut by 611 billion tenge (US$3.3 billion) to offset the fiscal stimulus.
• Non-Oil Deficit: Widened from 8.4% of GDP in 2013 to 10.8% in 2014 and 2015, but the fiscal stance is expected to remain sustainable due to reserves in the Oil Fund.

Monetary Policy

• Exchange Rate: The NBK maintained the peg despite the oil price fall, leading to a 26.7% appreciation of the real effective exchange rate between July 2014 and February 2015.
• Interest Rates: Increased significantly, from 4.9% in January 2014 to 12.8% in February 2015 for tenge-denominated deposits.
• Credit Growth: Slowed from double digits in 2014 to 2.3% by year-end, with consumer credit declining sharply and corporate credit also slowing.
• Subsidized Loans: Increased from -9% to nearly 33% in 2014, supporting overall credit growth.

Outlook

• GDP Recovery: Expected to gradually recover as oil prices stabilize, though the current policy mix may not be sufficient for sustained growth.
• Exchange Rate Regime: A more flexible regime may be needed for long-term growth.
• External Demand: Anticipated to remain weak due to economic slowdowns in China and Russia.

Key Information

• Oil Fund Role: Played a crucial role in financing the fiscal stimulus, contributing to the non-oil deficit widening.
• Public Spending Impact: The fiscal multiplier is estimated at 0.2–0.4, with a limited short-term effect on GDP growth.
• Reserves: Official reserves declined due to fiscal stimulus and exchange rate support, but remain at a high level (close to 34% of GDP as of end-February 2015).
• Structural Reforms: Aimed at improving public services, the business environment, the rule of law, and promoting a national identity through social mobility.

Structural Policies

• Institutional Reforms: Focus on transparency, accountability, and legitimacy in public institutions.
• Civil Service: Emphasis on skill-building and meritocratic processes.
• Business Environment: Streamlining regulations to improve efficiency.
• Rule of Law: Strengthening property rights, contract protection, and judicial systems.
• Social Mobility: Encouraging multiculturalism and trilingualism (Kazakh, Russian, English) as part of national identity development.

Summary of Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Tenge devaluation severely impacted private domestic demand.
• Figure 2: Service sector growth underpinned industrial output decline.
• Figure 3: Services job creation contributed to unemployment decline.
• Figure 4: Urban employment reduced poverty incidence.
• Figure 5: Economic support programs financed from the Oil Fund.
• Figure 6: Non-oil deficit widened due to support programs.
• Figure 7: Authorities maintained the peg despite oil price fall.
• Figure 8: Official reserves declined due to fiscal stimulus and peg support.
• Figure 9: Oil price fall dragged down GDP growth.
• Figure 10: Oil price shock affected current account and fiscal balances.
• Figure 11-15: Employment and poverty trends by sector and region.
• Table 1: Overview of economic support programs for 2014-17.
• Table 2: Republican Budget and Oil Fund transactions, 2011-15.
• Table 3: Real Effective Exchange Rates, 2013-2015.

Conclusion

Kazakhstan faces a challenging economic environment due to low oil prices and weak external demand, but the government's fiscal and monetary policies have aimed to stabilize the economy and protect social spending. The outlook suggests a gradual recovery, with a need for more flexible monetary policies and structural reforms to support long-term growth and shared prosperity.