2025-06-10-花旗集团-亚洲经济_寻找即将出现的出口回报迹象_15页_348kb

Citi warns that Asian exports, front-loaded to avoid US tariffs, may lead to "payback" effects this quarter, characterized by a subsequent slowdown in export growth. This is indicated by weakening global manufacturing PMIs, particularly in Asia, with declines in new export orders and backlogs, suggesting reduced demand.

Factors contributing to front-loading include extended export delays, a strong semiconductor cycle, and shifting trade patterns. However, divergence between tech exports (led by electronics and chips) and broader industrial production growth in Asia points to insufficient confidence in future orders, potentially triggering inventory de-stocking.

China's trade shifts worsen the risk: exports to the US have declined, while shipments to ASEAN countries (e.g., Indonesia, Vietnam) have surged, linked to trade diversion and transshipment to bypass tariffs. This is evident in rising import shares from China and higher correlations between China imports and US exports in these countries.

Specific indicators of slowing trade include mixed export data (e.g., China's reduced momentum in April-May), declining export unit prices, and persistent weak PMI components across key Asian economies like China, Korea, and Taiwan. Additionally, tech exports in countries such as Thailand lag industrial production, indicating inefficiencies or value-added issues.

Overall, these signs suggest that Asia's export resilience may not be sustainable, with risks of reduced production and capital goods imports. Citi advises monitoring PMIs and order-related data closely for early detection of payback in global trade.