2025-06-11-花旗集团-亚洲经济与策略日报_亚洲出口回报；台湾科技出口；2025年下半年澳大利亚就业情况_15页_660kb

Asia Economics & Strategy Daily - June 11, 2025

Key Points & Summary

Viewpoints and Highlights

1. Asian Export "Payback": The report identifies an increased risk of "payback" effects (reversal of export growth) in the coming quarters. Evidence includes weakening global manufacturing PMIs (highly correlated with trade volume) and a widening gap between Asian technology exports and sector industrial production, suggesting future order confidence is waning, potentially leading to inventory drawdown.

2. South Korea: Strong current account surplus (expected ~5.3% of GDP in 2025) is projected. Following a prolonged sell-off in 2024, foreign investor inflows into Korean equities have recently surged, marking one of the highest single-month inflows since 2024. However, Non-Portfolio Shares (NPS) could potentially increase outbound investment.

3. Vietnam: Export growth has accelerated, driven partly by front-loaded shipments to the US, but faces risks including potential US concerns on transshipment (similar to India's case) and ongoing negotiations. The structural breadth of Vietnam's export base is noted, leading to a more optimistic view.

4. Australia: Labor market leading indicators suggest it may be nearing a turning point. Employment growth is expected to slow, and the unemployment rate could rise in 2025H2, particularly impacting consumer and business sentiment. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipating slower growth, potentially influencing further monetary policy easing, including the possibility of a July rate cut.

5. Taiwan: May exports surged significantly, partly due to the 90-day tariff moratorium, especially focusing on info-communication products and destinations like the US and ASEAN. The strong performance will buffer Q2 GDP growth. However, concerns remain about facing larger payback effects starting Q3 after the moratorium expires. Q2 GDP forecast remains at 3.8% YoY and 2025E at 2.8% YoY.

Asset Flows & Developments

6. Foreign Investor Flows: Foreign investors reversed to net sellers in EM Asia equities in early June. Portfolio outflows from India and Indonesia were sustained, while Taiwanese equities saw positive inflows (high single-month post-Liberation Day). Korean equities reversed their previous trends.

7. Primary Market Tender Offer (PMT): Offer for acquisition scheduled for August 11, 2025, by Shareholder B.

Strategic Insights & Commentary

8. Overall Outlook: Various reports cover diverse strategies, ranging from recommended positions on specific currencies (e.g., long SGD vs GHS) to tactical advice (e.g., reducing long CNH vs basket, exiting short INR) and upcoming events tracking (JP PPI, ECB Wage tracker, US Core CPI MoM).

9. Detailed Reports: Includes analyses on:

   • Thailand Chart Pack
   • EM Big Beautiful EM
   • EM Auction Preview
   • And other topics covering currency movements, tariffs, sentiment shifts, and specific market views.

Investment Recommendations

10. Trading Ideas & Portfolio Advice: Proposed actions primarily involve FX positions (e.g., long USDHKD, INR, IDR, MYR, SGD; bearish SGD via call spreads;), duration plays (IDR), NCD placements (China, TWD), and ESG considerations.

11. Portfolio Allocation: The Citi EM Bond Model Portfolio adjusts allocations, with increases in CTD for China, moving away from CNY, additions to off-index o/w INR, IDR, PHP.

Conclusion

This summary captures the core points from the Citi Research publication on EM Asia. The website version is likely to be a 15-page document detailing these views, analysis, outlooks, portfolio adjustments, and investment ideas based on comprehensive research and data.