2025-06-10-花旗集团-电装公司（6902）_电装（6902.T）_维持买入评级_下一个中期计划可能提高股东回报_15页_703kb

报告摘要

Citi Research Summary: Denso (6902.T)

Rating and Target Price: Citi maintains a "Buy" rating for Denso but lowers the target price from ¥2,800 to ¥2,400. This adjustment reflects reduced forecasts due to tariff impacts and lower vehicle production, though the outlook remains positive for electrification and ADAS (Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems) growth.
Key Reasons: The downgrade is attributed to slower-than-expected profit growth from factors like trade tensions, production declines at certain customers, and potential cost pass-through delays. Despite this, Citi anticipates achieving the FY3/27 OPM (Operating Profit Margin) target of 10%.
Earnings Forecast: Citi lowers EPS and profit projections for FY3/26, estimating ¥214 EPS with a revised target multiple of 11x, below the historical average due to challenges in high-value components.
Dividend and Shareholder Returns: The dividend yield is expected to reach 3.4%, with continued buybacks aimed at reducing the equity ratio below 60%. Proceeds from potential Toyota Industries divestment could enhance returns.
Investment Catalysts: Look for updates in the summer on the next medium-term plan, focusing on higher DOE targets for FY3/31. Positive drivers include software revenue growth, increasing electrification orders, and ADAS expansion beyond Toyota.
Risks: Key vulnerabilities include auto demand trends, supply chain issues, forex fluctuations (e.g., ¥1 change affects OP by ≈¥1.7bn), trade disputes, and over-reliance on Toyota (accounting for ~50% of sales). If tariffs or production issues persist, the outlook may deteriorate.