20180423-法国巴黎银行-CEEMEA_Credit_Update_9页_229kb

CEEMEA Credit Update – 23 April 2018 Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a market update on credit and interest rate developments in the CEEMEA (Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) region for the week of 23 April 2018. It includes insights on sovereign and corporate issuance, market trends, fund flows, and key events impacting the credit markets.

Main Market Outlook

• Week Ahead Outlook: Geopolitical risks are currently subdued, leading to a more supported market environment. Sovereign issuance is expected to be lower, but corporate issuance is anticipated to rise following the release of Q1 results.
• Key Events:
  • Monday: World Bank and IMF meetings, G7 Summit, and French President Macron's state visit to the US.
  • Tuesday: Hungary's rate decision, results for NLMKRU and TCELLT.
  • Wednesday: Turkey's rate decision (expected to rise by +50bp to 13.25% Bloomberg consensus), results for QTELQD, AKBNK, and TURKTI.
  • Thursday: ECB rate decision (neutral message, no changes in guidance), results for ACKAF, GARAN, VAKBN, and FMCN.
  • Friday: BOJ rate decision (dovish rhetoric expected), US Q1 GDP (2.1% qoq Bloomberg consensus), and Russia's rate decision (no change expected).

Market Performance Recap

• Last Week Recap:
  • Cash remained flat.
  • CDX EM tightened by 4bp.
  • Global Credit showed rangebound performance.
  • Turkey was the best performer after the early election announcement (-7bp).
  • Russia continued recovery after recent widening (-4bp).
  • Ukraine curve repriced 25bp wider.
  • Kenya underperformed in SSA (+23bp).
  • MENA reacted to rate increases (+5bp on average).

Key Market Indicators

EM Cash and CDS Spread Summary (as of 19 April 2018)

Global Issuance Trends

• Global Issuance by Week:

  • Week 12: $7,052M
  • Week 13: $3,239M
  • Week 14: $2,759M
  • Week 15: $44,939M
  • Week 16: $24,770M
  • YTD Total Issuance: $249,934M
  • YTD Net Supply: $153,334M

• CEEMEA Issuance:

  • $11.5bn was priced across one sovereign (Turkey) and nine corporate deals.
  • Redemptions: Expected to be above average, over $5bn per week for the next two weeks.
  • Fund Flows: Returned to Hard Currency Funds with a +$700mn inflow, compared to -$100mn outflow from Local Currency Funds.

CDS Basis and Spread Movements

CEEMEA $ 5s-10s-30s

CDS Basis for Key Entities

Key Market Views

• Global Rates: The recent move in base rates higher is attributed to negative supply dynamics.
• Inflationary Concerns: Rising commodity prices, trade protectionism, and US fiscal policy are contributing to inflationary pressures.
• US 10Y Yield: The market is watching for the US 10-year Treasury yield to break through the $3% level.
• CEEMEA Outlook: Corporate issuance is expected to increase post-Q1 results, while sovereign issuance is likely to remain lower.
• Fund Flows: Returning to Hard Currency Funds, with a notable +$700mn inflow.

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• This document is a marketing communication prepared by the Sales and Trading function of BNP Paribas for professional clients and eligible counterparties.
• It is not a research report and may not be used for investment decisions unless the recipient is a Qualified Investor.
• The views expressed are not objective and may differ from those of the Research Department.
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