2025-06-09-花旗集团-奥什科什公司（OSK）_美国机械_准入模型更新_16页_864kb

Citi Research: US Machinery Access Model Updates

Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: $125 (raised from $105)
• EPS Adjustments:
  • 2025: Unchanged at $10.45
  • 2026: Increased by $0.15 to $12.60
  • 2027: Increased by $0.50 to $14.85
• Key Drivers: Defense and Vocational segments, USPS contract ramp-up.
• Valuation: ~12x P/E on 2025 EPS.

Terex Corporation (TEX)

• Rating: Neutral
• Price Target: $51 (unchanged)
• EPS Adjustments:
  • 2025: Lowered to $4.90 from $4.95
  • 2026: Increased by $0.05 to $5.75
  • 2027: Increased by $0.05 to $6.75
• Key Factors: ESG acquisition (positives) vs. AWP/MP business challenges.
• Valuation: ~10.5x P/E on 2025 EPS.

Key Risks:

• OSK: Weaker NA non-residential spending, NGDV execution risks.
• TEX: Lower-than-expected spending, AWP relocation margin misses, ESG synergy risks.

Summary: Citi maintains Buy on OSK due to secular tailwinds, while TEX remains Neutral amid mixed outlooks.