2025-06-09-花旗集团-百济神州（ONC）_BeOne_Medicines（ONC.O）_2025年第一季度模型更新_12页_566kb

Citi Research - BeOne Medicines (ONC.O)

• Model Update: Citigroup updated its financial model for 2025–2027 based on 1Q25 results.

  • Target Price: Reduced from US$345 to US$341, reflecting adjustments to P&L metrics.
  • Expected Total Return: 33.3% over 12 months.

• Key Financial Projections:

  • Earnings Growth: Shifts from net losses (US$-203M in 2024) to profitability (US$654M in 2025, rising to US$2,130M by 2027).
  • Revenue: From US$3,810M in 2024 to US$7,371M in 2027, with a 73.6% YoY growth in 2024.
  • Valuation: P/E drops from >99x to ~89x in 2025, P/B decreases from 106.5x to 66.1x in 2026.

• Company Overview:

  • Focus: Global biotech developing cancer therapies.
  • Key Assets: Brukinsa (BTK inhibitor), Tevimbra (anti-PD-1 mAb), with over 12 additional drugs commercialized in China.
  • Pipeline: Advanced programs include BCL-2 inhibitor (sonrotoclax).

• Rationale:

  • Brukinsa is expected to drive top-line growth, with ~US$6B peak revenue potential by 2028.
  • Pipeline clinical advancements, particularly in solid tumors, may not be fully reflected in valuation.

• Risks:

  • Brukinsa/Tevimbra sales shortfalls due to competitive, pricing, or policy factors.
  • Unfavorable R&D outcomes could impact investor returns.
  • Clinical/regulatory/commercial risks typical of large-cap pharma companies.

• Recommendation: Buy (Citi rating).