美联储褐皮书（2023年9月6日）：经济活动和就业市场增长放缓-32页_3mb

Summary of August 2023 Beige Book

• Overall Economic Activity:

  • Economic growth was modest and widespread across all Federal Reserve districts during July and August 2023.
  • Consumer spending on tourism and leisure rose, driven by pent-up demand from the pandemic, while spending on non-essential goods slowed amid higher interest rates and inflation.
  • Manufacturing activity softened in many areas due to declining new orders and supply chain issues, but improvements were noted in inventory and delivery times.

• Labor Markets:

  • Job growth remained tight or stagnant in most regions, with ongoing shortages of skilled workers across sectors like healthcare, hospitality, and transportation.
  • Wage growth moderated in many districts, below pre-pandemic levels, but still elevated compared to year-ago figures. Several contacts reported reduced hiring and increased use of temporary workers.

• Prices and Inflation:

  • Inflation slowed across the board, with price increases decelerating faster in manufacturing and consumer goods sectors.
  • However, persistent price pressures were noted in utilities, insurance, and transportation, while input costs often outweighed selling prices, compressing profit margins.
  • Expectations for future inflation declined, though uncertainty persists due to global factors.

• Consumer Spending:

  • Spending on discretionary items decreased, with consumers trading down to lower-cost goods, but leisure and tourism showed rebounds.
  • Auto sales were mixed, with new vehicle inventories improving but used cars remaining scarce. Retail sales were flat in some areas.

• Business and Manufacturing:

  • Supply chains continued to improve, easing delays and allowing better order fulfillment, but demand softened in sectors like chemicals and machinery.
  • Business investment plans were mixed, with some firms pulling back due to tighter profit margins and elevated costs.

• Housing and Real Estate:

  • Housing demand was strong due to incentives like rate buydowns, but constrained inventories and high mortgage rates limited supply.
  • Home prices increased in most markets, while rental rates stabilized or declined. Affordable housing construction faced challenges from financing costs.

• Regional Highlights:

  • District reports showed regional variations, with some areas emphasizing tourism gains, others noting manufacturing declines, and all experiencing labor shortages. Contact insights were gathered qualitatively and not reflecting official Fed views.