2023-09-24-美联储-美联储褐皮书（2023年9月6日）_经济活动和就业市场增长放缓_32页_3mb

Beige Book Summary: August 2023

Core Content

The Beige Book is a report by the Federal Reserve System that provides qualitative insights into the current economic conditions across its 12 districts. It is not a reflection of the views of Federal Reserve officials but rather a summary of information gathered from a diverse range of contacts, including businesses, community organizations, economists, and market experts. The report is published eight times a year and serves as a valuable complement to quantitative economic data, helping to identify trends and dynamics that may not be immediately visible.

Main Points

• Economic Activity: Most districts reported modest economic growth in July and August. Consumer spending on tourism was strong, while other retail spending slowed. New auto sales increased due to better inventory availability, not necessarily higher demand. Manufacturing activity improved in some areas, but new orders remained stable or declined. Single-family housing inventory remained constrained, leading to increased construction activity but challenges in affordable housing.

• Labor Markets: Job growth was subdued, with persisting imbalances in skilled labor availability and applicant numbers. Worker retention improved in some sectors, such as manufacturing and transportation. Wage growth remained elevated in many districts, though expectations for slower growth in the near term were noted. Some sectors, like the restaurant industry, saw increased hiring due to the return of student loan repayments.

• Prices: Price growth slowed overall, with notable declines in some sectors. However, property insurance costs increased sharply, and businesses struggled to pass on input cost increases, leading to falling profit margins. Inflationary pressures were expected to ease further.

Key Information by District

Boston (First District)

• Economic Activity: Business activity expanded modestly, but real estate lagged.
• Employment & Wages: Employment was flat, wages grew modestly.
• Retail & Tourism: Retail and restaurant sales increased, but home sales fell due to rising mortgage rates.
• Manufacturing: Revenues increased, but some firms faced weak demand from China.
• Residential Real Estate: Home prices rose, but inventory was low, making sales difficult.
• Commercial Real Estate: Markets were stagnant, with limited investment sales due to high borrowing costs.

New York (Second District)

• Economic Activity: Activity held steady, with some contraction in manufacturing.
• Labor Markets: Employment increased modestly, wage growth remained steady.
• Consumer Spending: Spending on experiences grew, while goods spending sagged.
• Real Estate: Low inventory continued to restrain home sales, pushing up prices.
• Commercial Real Estate: Office market weakened, while retail and industrial markets remained stable.

Philadelphia (Third District)

• Economic Activity: Business activity declined slightly, with mixed manufacturing results.
• Labor Markets: Labor availability improved, employment edged up.
• Consumer Spending: Declined overall, with limited retail and tourism activity.
• Real Estate: Residential real estate remained constrained, with some improvement in construction.

General Trends

• Consumer Behavior: Consumers were increasingly relying on borrowing, with some exhausting savings. Price sensitivity was rising, and non-essential spending continued to slow.
• Supply Chain: Delays improved, but inventory constraints persisted in housing and some manufacturing sectors.
• Inflation: Inflationary pressures eased in most districts, though some sectors still faced cost increases.
• Regional Outlook: Most contacts expected stable or slightly improved economic activity in the coming months, with fewer mentions of a recession.

Additional Resources

• The Federal Reserve conducts various surveys and has advisory councils to gather diverse perspectives on the economy.
• For more information on specific districts, visit:
  • Boston Federal Reserve
  • New York Federal Reserve