美联储：美联储褐皮书（英文版）_32页_2mb

报告摘要

Overall economic activity increased slightly since late May, with mixed regional growth.
Consumer spending remained moderate, with a shift towards essentials and some strength in services and travel.
Labor markets saw modest job growth and wage moderation, though shortages persisted in key sectors like healthcare and IT.
Prices increased at a modest pace, with inflation easing compared to earlier in the year.
Economic expectations for coming months were generally for slow growth, though uncertainty rose amid high interest rates and global factors.

Employment growth was steady but faced hiring challenges, particularly for skilled trades and high-demand roles in healthcare and transportation.
Wages moderated in many areas, returning toward pre-pandemic levels, but remained elevated for some sectors.
Labor availability improved slightly in some regions, easing recruitment pressures.

Inflation eased, with slowing price increases in most districts, especially in services; input cost pressures improved.
Consumer prices saw minimal impact from cost hikes in some cases, but retailers maintained margins cautiously.
Price expectations remained stable or lower over the next six months.

Spending on discretionary items softened, but essentials and services saw moderate growth.
Tourism and travel showed mixed results, with expectations for a busy summer season amid strong leisure demand.
Auto sales were constrained by low inventories and high mortgage rates but showed resilience in some markets.

Manufacturing activity was mixed, with some sectors reporting moderate growth amid solid demand for capital equipment and offsetting declines in other areas.
Service sectors expanded at a modest pace, supported by IT and professional services, though AI advancements raised concerns for some providers.

Residential real estate activity was subdued due to inventory shortages and high rates, with price appreciation steady despite market constraints.
Commercial real estate faced challenges, including reduced leasing and tighter credit conditions, exacerbated by economic uncertainty.

Economic growth is expected to remain slow in coming months, with risks from high interest rates, inflation, and labor shortages.
Supply chain issues eased in many districts, supporting inventory management.
Energy markets signaled potential slowdowns, while agricultural conditions faced weather and pricing challenges.

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