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Beige Book Summary: June 2023

Core Content

The Beige Book is a report published eight times per year by the Federal Reserve System, summarizing economic conditions and expectations across its 12 districts. It provides qualitative insights from business contacts, community organizations, and other sources, rather than being a formal policy statement. The report is used to supplement economic data and assess regional and national economic trends.

Main Points

Overall Economic Activity

• Growth: Slight increase in economic activity across most districts, with five reporting modest growth and five noting no change.
• Consumer Spending: Mixed results; growth in consumer services, but declines in discretionary spending and retail.
• Auto Sales: Remained unchanged or showed moderate growth.
• Manufacturing: Mixed, with some districts reporting growth and others decline.
• Transportation: Generally flat or down due to high inventory and labor shortages.
• Real Estate: Residential demand remained steady, but constrained by low inventory. Commercial real estate weakened.
• Energy: Activity decreased.
• Agriculture: Mixed, with some softening in conditions.
• Expectations: Overall, economic expectations for the coming months remained for slow growth.

Labor Markets

• Employment: Modest gains in most districts, though some sectors like healthcare, transportation, and hospitality continued to face hiring challenges.
• Wage Growth: Moderated, with many districts reporting wage increases returning to pre-pandemic levels.
• Labor Availability: Improved in some areas, reducing hiring needs for some firms.
• Turnover: Returned to pre-pandemic norms, with some firms reporting reduced turnover and absenteeism.

Prices

• Inflation: Modest overall, with some districts noting slowing price increases.
• Input Costs: Eased in manufacturing but remained high in services.
• Freight and Construction Costs: Continued to fall, though concrete prices increased.
• Price Expectations: Generally stable or lower in the coming months.

Key Highlights by District

Boston

• Business activity expanded slightly.
• Employment gains were small; prices were stable.
• Consumer spending increased modestly.
• Home sales were disappointing; life sciences leasing slowed.
• Outlook was optimistic outside of real estate.

New York

• Regional activity stabilized after weakness.
• Labor market strong, with firming in recent weeks.
• Inflation eased; consumer spending grew steadily.
• Housing markets solid, but low inventory limited sales.

Philadelphia

• Business activity continued to decline slightly.
• Consumer demand ticked down, but profit margins supported sales.
• Employment fell slightly; wage and inflation growth subsided.
• Economic growth expectations remained subdued.

Cleveland

• Economy stable, with high interest rates constraining big-ticket purchases.
• Contacts more optimistic about near-term outlook.
• Concerns about a U.S. recession in 2023 were lessened.

Richmond

• Slight growth in the regional economy.
• Retail and travel spending increased.
• Manufacturing and transportation sectors saw slower demand.
• Residential real estate constrained by low inventory.
• Commercial real estate and lending declined.

Atlanta

• Slow economic growth.
• Labor markets less tight; wage pressures eased.
• Nonlabor costs moderated.
• Discretionary retail sales softened; auto sales strong.
• Domestic leisure travel declined; international and business travel rose.
• Housing demand strong; transportation activity slowed.

Chicago

• Little change in economic activity.
• Employment increased moderately.
• Consumer spending flat; business spending and construction declined.
• Manufacturing decreased modestly.
• Prices and wages rose moderately; financial conditions tightened.
• Outlook for farm incomes decreased.

St. Louis

• No change in economic conditions since last report.
• Employers still struggle to find skilled workers; wage pressures lessened.
• Consumer spending steady; shift away from discretionary goods.
• Homebuying increased; commercial real estate worsened.

Minneapolis

• Slight growth in economic activity.
• Employment rose moderately; prices and wages were mild.
• Consumer spending flat.
• Professional services reported strong activity and positive outlook.
• Residential construction and real estate remained low.
• Farm outlook weakened due to dry conditions.

Kansas City

• Economic activity changed little in June.
• Hiring flat; expected employment levels continued to point downward.
• Businesses rely on natural attrition to reduce headcount.
• Concerns about credit quality and access increased.

Dallas

• Modest expansion supported by services and single-family housing.
• Factory output, drilling, and loan demand declined.
• Credit conditions tightened further.
• Employment rose moderately; wage growth remained high.
• Price pressures evaporated in manufacturing but remained in services.
• Uncertainty and economic concerns persisted.

San Francisco

• Economic activity softened modestly.
• Labor availability improved across sectors.
• Wage growth slowed; price increases continued.
• Retail and services activity eased.
• Manufacturing and agriculture conditions were mixed.
• Commercial real estate activity fell; financial sector unchanged.

Community Perspectives

• Community Services: Shortfalls worsened food insecurity, homelessness, and public safety.
• Mental Health: Concerns about inadequate mental health care system.
• Housing: Need for supportive housing integrated with social services and medical support.
• Nonprofits: Collaborated with hospitals to develop housing sites, but faced challenges due to high costs and supply chain issues.

Summary of Economic Activity (Reiteration)

• Business activity in the Third District continued to decline slightly.
• Consumer demand ticked down, with more cautious spending.
• High interest rates limited existing home listings, aiding new home builders.
• Employment fell slightly despite improved labor availability.
• Wages and prices grew modestly, with some firms indicating pressure was subsiding.
• Supply chain disruptions were minimal, with costs stabilizing.
• Credit standards tightened, but credit quality remained good.
• Economic growth expectations for the next six months remained subdued.

Conclusion

The June 2023 Beige Book reflects a mixed economic outlook across the U.S. with slight growth in some districts and stagnation or decline in others. While consumer spending and services remained resilient, manufacturing and transportation faced challenges. Real estate markets, especially commercial, showed signs of weakness, and labor shortages continued to affect hiring in key sectors. Price pressures eased in some areas but remained elevated in others, and uncertainty about the broader economic environment persisted.