美联储褐皮书（2023年7月12日版）-美联储-32页_2mb

National Summary June 2023

Overall economic activity increased slightly since late May, with five districts reporting growth and two noting declines. Consumer spending mixed due to discretionary cutbacks, but services and auto sales generally positive. Tourism robust. Manufacturing edged up in half districts, declined in others. Labor markets tight but easing, with hiring more selective. Price pressures moderated slightly.

Labor Markets

Employment modestly increased, with most districts seeing job growth. Hiring slowed due to worker shortages, particularly in healthcare, transportation/hospitality, and skilled trades. Wages rose moderately, returning to near-pre-pandemic levels.

Prices

Prices increased at a modest pace overall. Input cost pressures eased, especially in manufacturing, but remained elevated in services. Retail prices generally stable, though consumer price sensitivity growing.

National outlook subdued, with expectations calling for slow growth.

Boston

• Business activity slightly expanded; employment modestly increased; prices stable.
• Consumer spending up slightly; manufacturing revenue moderate growth.
• Real estate highlights: residential sales soft; commercial leasing down; condo prices up.
• Outlook neutral-optimistic except real estate.

New York

• Activity stabilized after weakness; labor market strong; inflation easing.
• Consumer spending steady; tourism strong.
• Housing market solid, constrained by low inventory.
• Commercial real estate mostly unchanged; banking stressed.

Philadelphia

• Activity declined slightly; consumer demand ticked down; employment fell slightly.
• Wage inflation slowing; nonmanufacturing jobs down.
• Manufacturing struggling; tourism flattening.
• Real estate and construction activity mixed.

Cleveland

• Business activity little changed; labor market tight but easing.
• Wages stabilizing; input costs down; inflation moderating.
• Consumer spending steady; retail softened slightly.
• Outlook cautious but less recession-wary.

Richmond

• Economic growth slight; employment moderate increase; price growth eased.
• Manufacturing slowdown; tourism mixed.
• Residential real estate constrained; commercial real estate declined.
• Outlook generally stable.

Atlanta

• Activity grew slowly; labor market less tight; wage pressures eased.
• Retail softening; auto sales strong.
• Tourism mixed (leisure down, business up).
• Commercial real estate solid in retail/industrial; office cooling.

Chicago

• Economic activity little changed; employment increased moderately.
• Consumer spending flat; manufacturing down slightly.
• Prices rose moderately; outlook cautious.

St. Louis

• Activity unchanged; employment stable; wage growth slight.
• Prices up modestly; tourism varied by region.
• Manufacturing slightly increased; banking margins compressed.

Minneapolis

• Growth slight; employment rose moderately; prices mild.
• Services and construction grew; agriculture weakened due to drought.
• Minority/women-owned firms steady.

Kansas City

• Activity mixed; employment flattening; prices moderate increase.
• Manufacturing declined; energy down further.
• Housing demand solid, constrained supply; CRE concerns rise.

Dallas

• Expansion modest; service sector and housing buoyant.
• Manufacturing contraction; credit tightening.
• Energy down due to oil prices; wage growth high.

San Francisco

• Activity softened; employment eased; prices stuck high.
• Retail moderating; manufacturing solid but weakening.
• Real estate down; banking standards tightened.
• Community affordability challenges.