20240129-招银国际-Fixed_Income_Daily_Market_Update_7页_855kb

报告摘要

The market experienced quiet conditions on January 29, 2024, with notable movements in specific sectors such as AMC, Chinese financials, and industrial credits. Key changes included tighter spreads in CCAMCL/ORIEASt and rallies in EUAT1, alongside profit-taking in high-beta TMT names like LENOVO/MEITUA/XIAOMI.

Onshore investors appeared more bearish on China due to closer ties to slowing economic conditions and policy changes, while offshore investors expressed caution on Asian ex-Japan credits.
Fund flows improved modestly for offshore investors, but meaningful inflows are expected after US rate cuts. Onshore investors remain keen on USD bonds due to higher yields compared to domestic options and concerns over RMB depreciation.
Sectors viewed positively include TMT (due to moderating regulatory concerns) and Macau gaming, while properties faced push-back despite policy support.

A policy package to boost post-CNY sales was introduced, including purchase limit relaxations and financing coordination mechanisms, but it has only a short-term effect on stock performance due to unresolved fundamental issues like low purchasing power and unchanged risk standards.

Recent offshore new issues include a USD 300mn 3-year floating-rate note from China Industrial Securities with coupon SOFR+90.
Pipeline issues involve Hyundai Capital Services, targeting standardized developers with possible refinancing support.

Market volatility is expected to persist in 2024, influenced by US rate cuts, USD strength, and regional economic fundamentals.
Valuations remain tight, with net redemption trends continuing to drive spread compression.

CF Analysts' Views:

Anticipate gradual equilibrium in LGFV yields and mixed flows based on investor positioning.
Emphasize monitoring macroeconomic recovery and policy implementation for long-term sector performance.

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