世界银行-海平面上升的国际法问题（英）-2023.11-88页_18mb

Summary: International Law Aspects of Sea Level Rise

Introduction and Overview

• Report Scope: This study analyzes the impact of sea level rise on coastal sovereign states and, in particular, Small Island Developing States (SIDS). It focuses on international legal frameworks, questions of maritime entitlements, state continuity, human mobility, and institutional responses.
• Key Message: Sea level rise presents unprecedented legal challenges related to territory, maritime zones, statehood, and populations, requiring coordinated international responses.
• Structure: The work updates a 2021 study, organized into three main parts and an appendix detailing financial mechanisms. It examines scientific predictions, legal regimes, key questions in international law, and institutional responses, including financial mechanisms.

Expected Effects of Climate Change on Coastal States

• Sea Level Predictions: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts significant sea level rise this century (0.39 - 5.3 m by 2100) disproportionately affecting SIDS and low-lying coastal states.
• Physical and Ecological Impacts: Coral reefs, fisheries, and coastal ecosystems are threatened. Millions may experience historical flood events annually by 2050, with economic losses increasing exponentially.
• Impacts on SIDS: Food security, population displacement, and infrastructure loss threaten the continued existence of many island nations.

The Legal Regime Governing Coastal and Island States

• Law of the Sea Convention (LOSC): Provides maritime zones from coastal baselines (territorial sea, EEZ, continental shelf) but its applicability to sea-level rise-related changes remains unsettled.
• Climate Change Regime: UNFCCC and Paris Agreement establish mitigation/adaptation goals, financial mechanisms, and loss and damage frameworks applicable to sea-level rise.
• Human Mobility: Limited legal frameworks address displacement, migration, and planned relocation within and across borders in the climate context.
• Human Rights: International and regional human rights instruments offer protection standards relevant to climate impacts.

Key Legal and Policy Questions

Maritime Baselines and Zones

• Ambulatory Baselines: Debate exists around whether legal baselines automatically adjust to physical coastline retreat.
• Country-Specific Impacts: Detailed analysis of sea-level rise impacts on archipelagic states (e.g., Kiribati, Marshall Islands), highlighting threatened maritime space.

State Continuity and Statehood

• Loss of Territory: Questions arise regarding state continuity if populations/territories become uninhabitable but retain governments in exile.
• Montevideo Criteria: Elements like territory and population have traditionally been central to statehood but unclear how climate impacts affect these.

Human Mobility in Climate Context

• Legal Frameworks: Highly fragmented; gaps remain around terminology ("climate refugee") and specific obligations for cross-border displacement.
• Non-refoulement: May apply beyond refugee law to limit return to areas facing climate harms.

Institutional Responses

• International Law Association (ILA): Conducted 2012 and 2018 studies on sea-level rise, articulating principles of legal stability and territorial integrity.
• International Law Commission (ILC): Proposes 2020 and 2022 studies examining sea-level rise's effects on treaty interpretation and customary law.

Financial and Technical Mechanisms

• Adaptation Finance: Paris Agreement encourages blending public and private finance; institutional options include Adaptation Fund, Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF), Green Climate Fund (GCF), and national programs.
• Regional Pools: Caribbean Catastrophe Insurance Facility (CCRIF), African Risk Capacity (ARC), Southeast Asia Disaster Risk Insurance Facility (SEA MRIF) finance climate-related disasters.
• NDC Support Facility: Multi-donor trust helping countries implement their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Conclusion and Challenges

• Outstanding Issues: How to adapt LOSC to sea-level rise, what triggers adjustments to baselines/zones, and ensuring stable dispute-resolution mechanisms.
• Unprecedented Challenges: The slow-onset nature of climate change creates legal problems without historical precedents.
• Recommendations: Strengthen customary law interpretations, develop international legal solutions for maritime stability, enhance financial mechanisms for adaptation and loss and damage.

Disclaimers

• External Contributions: Contributions to the World Bank funds should not be considered as considering, sponsoring, or otherwise promoting the views expressed in this report.
• Product of the World Bank: The independent study is organized by the World Bank Legal Vice Presidency and reflects expert analysis.