联合国西亚经济社会委员会-估算海平面上升对交通_住房和农业造成的经济损失_以埃及亚历山大港为例（英）-2025_45页_2mb

This report presents a methodology for estimating economic loss and damage from sea level rise (SLR) using Alexandria, Egypt, as a case study. It adapts the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean's Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) methodology to project impacts under a 30 cm SLR rise by 2060.

Key Findings:

• Economic Impact: Estimated damage to transportation, housing, and agriculture sectors ranges from $5.2 billion to $17.3 billion. Macroeconomic analysis shows annual GDP losses of 0.15%–0.33%.
• Sectoral Breakdown:
  • Housing: Damage estimates vary by displacement duration, ranging from $7 million to $23.4 million.
  • Transportation: Road, rail, and port infrastructure losses amount to $634 million–$2.11 billion.
  • Agriculture: Wheat and land losses are estimated at $4.5 billion–$15.2 billion, with wheat yield losses of $106 million–$353.5 million.
• Non-Economic Losses: Potential impacts include environmental degradation, saltwater intrusion, biodiversity loss, and displacement of populations.
• Methodology: The study uses geospatial data, economic input-output models, and probabilistic assessments based on IPCC projections. Limitations include coarse data resolution, limited sectoral coverage, and short-term focus.

Recommendations:

1. Refine methodologies with higher-resolution data and broader sectoral inclusion.
2. Integrate qualitative assessments for non-economic losses.
3. Adopt natural capital accounting to assess environmental impacts.

This study underscores the urgent need for adaptation measures and highlights opportunities for methodological innovation in loss and damage assessments.