未来能源研究所-面临风险的工作：海平面上升、沿海洪水和地方经济（英）-2023.5-36页_9mb

Jobs at Risk: Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Summary

Objective: To assess the exposure of jobs and wage income to sea level rise (SLR) and tidal flooding in the Chesapeake Bay region under current conditions and in 2050.

Methodology: Used NOAA SLR projections, flood mapping techniques (GIS-based), and administrative data from the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) Database to analyze geolocated business establishments, employment, and wage income data.

Key Findings:

• Under current conditions, approximately 176,500 jobs are exposed to 100-year flooding, rising to 263,500 (and $11.1 billion in wage income) by 2050 due to SLR.
• Maryland and Virginia have 2.1–4.8% and 3.0–7.4% of their jobs exposed, respectively, with Virginia experiencing higher increases.
• Major hotspots include Baltimore City, Norfolk, and Poquoson (e.g., >90% job exposure in Poquoson by 2050).
• Geographic heterogeneity exists, with Somerset County, Maryland, and Tidewater region, Virginia, showing the highest shares of exposed jobs.
• Wages vary by jurisdiction; high-wage jobs dominate in some areas, while low-wage jobs are prevalent in tourist-oriented regions.
• Identified 44 census tracts with high flood exposure and social vulnerability, often with lower incomes and higher poverty rates.

Policy Implications: Advocate for better coordination between economic development programs and climate resilience strategies, such as integrating SLR projections into zoning, funding relocation, and prioritizing vulnerable areas.

Conclusion: Rising SLR risks underscore the need for aligned policies to enhance coastal community resilience and economic sustainability.