2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Norway_Selected_Issues_52页_1mb

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on Norway

Core Content

This document is a Selected Issues paper prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Norway, focusing on the economic transition from oil and gas dependence, the housing market dynamics, and firm-level productivity analysis. The paper was completed on June 9, 2016, and outlines the challenges and policy responses related to the country's economic structure and its adaptation to the decline in oil prices.

Main Issues and Key Points

A. Consequences of the Oil Boom

• Economic Dependence on Oil and Gas: Norway's economy has become increasingly reliant on oil and gas, with exports accounting for 57% of total goods exports in 2013. The export structure has become more concentrated compared to other advanced commodity exporters.
• Resource Reallocation: The oil boom led to a significant shift of resources from traditional and nontradables sectors to the oil-related and nontradables sectors. This shift was observed in both capital and labor.
• Productivity Impact: The oil boom negatively impacted overall productivity growth. The decline was attributed to both within-sector and between-sector effects. The within-sector effect was the main contributor, with a marked drop in nontradables productivity.
• Oil Dependence in Mainland Industries: Many mainland industries have deepened their dependence on the oil sector. For example, the machinery and equipment rental industry's input to the oil sector increased from 10% to 27% of its total intermediate consumption between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s.
• Empirical Evidence: A panel regression analysis shows that oil-dependent industries experienced higher real value added growth during periods of high oil prices, particularly after 2000. This effect was not present in the pre-2000 period.

B. An Economy in Transition

• Decline in Oil Sector Activity: The oil and gas sector is shrinking, with declining production and investment. The traditional goods sector has not yet shown a significant recovery.
• Labor Market Adjustments: Unemployment is rising, particularly in the oil-related sectors. However, the weak krone provides a cushion, supporting traditional exports and improving cost competitiveness in the oil sector.
• Labor Mobility: Norway's labor market is generally flexible, with high mobility between sectors and regions. However, long-term unemployment has increased since 2012, and labor mobility among Norwegians is lower than among other nationalities.
• Slow Transition Scenario: In a scenario where the transition from oil dependence is slow, unemployment could peak at 5.3% in 2016, and economic growth could remain weak for a longer period.

C. Policies to Facilitate the Transition

• Wage Formation: Flexible wage formation is crucial for managing labor transitions and maintaining international competitiveness. The collective bargaining system in Norway has historically aligned wage growth with productivity gains.
• Wage Growth Trends: Since the oil price downturn, wage growth has been historically low (2.8% in 2015), with a centrally-negotiated increment of 0.3% in 2015. This has helped lower unit labor costs and maintain monetary policy flexibility.
• Macroprudential Policy: The Norwegian housing market has experienced a boom, leading to rising household debt. Macroprudential policies have been introduced to manage credit and house price growth, with potential impacts on economic stability.

Key Information

• Oil and Gas Sector Impact: The oil and gas sector has been a major driver of economic activity, but its decline has led to structural challenges.
• Productivity Decline: The oil boom contributed to a slowdown in productivity growth, particularly in the nontradables sector.
• Labor Market Dynamics: The labor market is undergoing significant changes, with a shift from oil-related jobs to other sectors, and a rise in unemployment.
• Exchange Rate and Competitiveness: The depreciation of the krone has supported traditional exports and improved the competitiveness of the oil sector.
• Collective Bargaining System: Norway's system of collective bargaining has been effective in managing wage growth and industrial relations, but it has shown flexibility in response to economic conditions.
• Macroprudential Tools: These tools have been used to control credit and house price growth, with potential effects on economic stability.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Reallocation of Labor and Capital during the oil boom.
• Figure 2: Decomposition of productivity growth showing the impact of resource reallocation and within-sector productivity.
• Figure 3: Real sector developments, including industrial production, value added, and investment.
• Figure 4: Labor market developments, including unemployment rates and job vacancies.
• Figure 5: Slow transition scenario showing the potential impact on unemployment and growth.
• Table 1: Effect of upstream PMR on downstream labor productivity and TFP.
• Table 2: Oil dependence of selected industries based on input-output data.

Policy Implications

• The transition from oil and gas requires careful management of labor and productivity shifts.
• Continued flexibility in wage formation and labor mobility is essential to support the transition.
• Macroprudential policies need to be adjusted to address the risks in the housing market and maintain financial stability.
• A slow transition may lead to prolonged economic weakness and higher unemployment, necessitating proactive policy responses.