2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Norway_Selected_Issues_34页_1mb

Summary of the 2013 Article IV Consultation on Norway

Core Content

The 2013 Article IV Consultation report on Norway, prepared by the IMF staff, provides an in-depth analysis of the country's long-term competitiveness, household balance sheets, and long-run fiscal challenges. The report is based on data available up to July 19, 2013, and highlights key structural and macroeconomic issues affecting Norway's economic resilience and sustainability.

Main Points

1. Long-Term Competitiveness

• Trade Structure:

  • Oil and gas account for nearly 70% of Norway’s goods exports, up from about 50% in 1990.
  • Manufacturing exports have declined significantly, from around 25% in the 1990s to 19% in 2011.
  • Fish exports have remained stable at about 6% of total exports.

• External Position:

  • Norway's trade surplus is largely driven by the offshore oil and gas sector.
  • The non-oil trade balance has remained in deficit, with a consistent negative impact on the mainland economy's competitiveness.

• Terms of Trade:

  • The overall terms of trade have improved due to high oil prices.
  • The mainland terms of trade have also improved, but to a lesser extent.

• ** Tradable Sector**:

  • The tradable sector is large, but this is mainly due to the oil and gas industry.
  • The non-oil tradable sector is smaller than its OECD peers and has been shrinking over time.

• Market Share:

  • Norway has maintained a steady global market share in total exports.
  • However, its market share in non-oil exports has declined significantly over the past two decades.
  • Manufacturing exports have lost almost 60% of their global market share since 1990.

• Specialization and Competitiveness:

  • Norway has lost market share in sectors that are currently growing globally.
  • The manufacturing sector is split into two parts: oil-linked industries expanding and traditional industries shrinking.
  • The growth of the oil-related engineering industry has driven manufacturing output, while traditional sectors have stagnated.

• Cost Competitiveness:

  • Unit labor costs (ULC) in Norway have increased substantially, particularly in the service sector.
  • The ULC-based real effective exchange rate (REER) has appreciated significantly, indicating a loss of price competitiveness.
  • Wage growth has outpaced productivity growth, leading to higher unit labor costs and a decline in the competitiveness of non-oil sectors.

• Dutch Disease and Fiscal Policy:

  • Despite a fiscal rule designed to insulate the mainland economy from Dutch disease, the country's long-term competitiveness appears to be at risk.
  • The mainland economy is increasingly dependent on the offshore sector, which may affect its ability to sustain growth in the event of a decline in oil prices.

2. Household Balance Sheets

• High Household Debt:

  • Household debt in Norway was at 200% of disposable income in 2011, one of the highest in the OECD.
  • This is driven by strong housing market growth and mortgage lending.

• House Price Trends:

  • Real house prices in Norway increased by nearly 30% since 2008, despite a brief correction during the financial crisis.
  • Affordability indicators (price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios) have worsened, suggesting potential overvaluation of housing.

• House Price Valuation Gaps:

  • Staff estimates suggest house price valuation gaps could be as high as 40% in 2013.
  • The 2011 Article IV report estimated a 15–20% overvaluation based on an econometric model.
  • These gaps are sensitive to assumptions, but remain substantial even after recalculations.

• Financial Buffers:

  • Households have limited financial buffers, as a large portion of assets are illiquid.
  • Micro data shows that debt burdens are relatively evenly distributed across income groups.
  • Households are more likely to reduce consumption than default on mortgages in the case of a house price correction.

• Net Worth:

  • Norwegian households have net worth of about 200% of disposable income.
  • Non-financial assets, especially housing, are likely to be undervalued by about one-third when compared to market values.
  • Adjusting for this, net worth would rise to 340% of disposable income, still among the lowest in the OECD.

3. Long-Run Fiscal Challenges

• Resource Wealth and Fiscal Rule:

  • Norway’s fiscal rule, established in 2001, aims to insulate the mainland economy from Dutch disease by limiting the inflow of oil revenues.
  • The Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) holds most of the oil and gas-related income, but the non-oil deficit as a share of mainland GDP has increased due to the growing size of the GPFG.

• Fiscal Sustainability:

  • The fiscal rule constrains the non-oil deficit relative to GPFG assets, not to mainland GDP, which may not fully insulate the economy from oil price volatility.
  • The increasing dependency of the mainland economy on the oil sector raises concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability and growth resilience.

• Economic Vulnerabilities:

  • If oil prices fall significantly, the non-oil part of the economy may struggle to maintain growth and employment.
  • The report warns that the current reliance on oil and gas may limit the country’s capacity to sustain economic growth in the long run.

Key Information

• Unit labor costs (ULC) in Norway have increased significantly over the past decade, outpacing productivity growth and contributing to a loss of competitiveness.
• House prices in Norway are estimated to be overvalued by 15–40%, depending on the measure used, with affordability indicators worsening.
• Household net worth is substantial but not as high as in similar OECD countries when adjusted for market values.
• Fiscal rule has limited the impact of oil revenues on the mainland economy, but the increasing dependency on the oil sector raises concerns about long-term resilience.
• Non-oil exports have lost significant market share, especially in manufacturing, due to structural shifts and the dominance of the oil sector.

Conclusion

The report concludes that Norway's long-term competitiveness is at risk, particularly in the non-oil sectors, due to high wage costs, declining manufacturing share, and a growing reliance on oil-related activities. Households are highly indebted and have limited financial buffers, making them vulnerable to potential house price corrections. The fiscal rule has helped manage oil revenues, but the increasing size of the Government Pension Fund Global and the structural integration of the mainland economy with the oil sector may pose long-term risks to economic stability and growth.