2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_France_Selected_Issues_31页_1mb

Summary of Selected Issues on France

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of key expenditure and labor market issues in France, focusing on fiscal consolidation, social spending, pension reforms, health care costs, unemployment benefits, and labor market rigidities. It outlines the challenges and potential reforms aimed at improving efficiency, reducing costs, and enhancing labor market flexibility.

I. Expenditure Reforms

Key Points

• Fiscal Consolidation: The 2015 Stability Program outlines a fully expenditure-based fiscal consolidation path, but nominal spending containment has not yielded the expected savings due to low growth and inflation.
• Public Spending: France's public spending reached a record high of 57.5% of GDP in 2014, driven largely by social spending.
• Social Spending:
  • France's social spending is among the highest in the OECD, with public social expenditure reaching 31.4% of GDP in 2011.
  • The OECD estimates that 27% of social benefits in cash go to the highest income quintile, and less than 17% to the lowest.
  • Reforms to improve efficiency and targeting could help reduce spending without compromising social benefits.
• Pensions:
  • Pensions account for 14.2% of GDP in 2011, the highest in the OECD except for Italy and Greece.
  • Reforms since 2003, 2010, and 2014 have increased the effective retirement age and reduced early retirement schemes.
  • A new target to increase the retirement age to 65 and harmonize special pension regimes is proposed.
• Health Care:
  • France spends the most on public health care, with 8.6% of GDP in 2011.
  • The OECD estimates that public healthcare spending could be reduced by 1.3% of GDP without affecting quality.
  • Reforms include promoting ambulatory procedures, generic medicine, and rationalizing prescriptions.
• Unemployment Benefits:
  • Unemployment benefits are generous, accounting for 3% of general government spending.
  • A review of the system is underway, with social partners expected to negotiate changes in the coming months.
• Wage Bill:
  • Public sector wage bill is the highest in Europe after the Nordic countries, at 13% of GDP.
  • A wage-scale freeze since 2010 has kept the wage bill constant, but local governments and Social Security continue to grow faster than GDP.
• Local Government:
  • Local governments are constrained by a "golden rule" limiting borrowing to investment.
  • Spending has grown faster than nominal GDP, partly due to decentralization and loose budget constraints.
  • A new indicative target for local public expenditure (ODEDEL) has been introduced, but adherence remains uncertain.
• Spending Reviews and Rules:
  • A multiyear budget law introduced targeted expenditure reviews, but tools for assessing efficiency and quality are limited.
  • There is no clear multi-year spending anchor or transparent burden-sharing system among government levels.

Potential Expenditure Reforms

• Institutional Change:
  • Launch regular and broad spending reviews for all levels of government.
  • Involve the Fiscal Council or audit court in evaluating expenditure-saving measures.
  • Anchor general government spending to inflation with a burden-sharing mechanism.
• Local Government:
  • Eliminate the "universal competency" clause.
  • Lower the cap on local tax rates.
  • Limit local government borrowing.
  • Reverse the growth in public employment.
• Social and Health:
  • Improve targeting and efficiency of social benefits, especially family and housing allowances.
  • Reform health reimbursement schemes.
  • Merge hospitals and improve efficiency.
  • Promote ambulatory procedures and increase generic medicine use.
• Unemployment:
  • Tighten eligibility criteria.
  • Introduce incentives for job acceptance.
• Pensions:
  • Raise the effective retirement age.
  • Harmonize special pension regimes.
  • Ensure financial sustainability of supplementary pensions.
• Investment:
  • Strengthen ex ante analysis of public investment impacts.

II. Labor Market Reform

Key Points

• Structural Unemployment: Despite reforms and economic recovery, unemployment is expected to remain high in the medium term, reaching 9% in 2020 under baseline assumptions.
• Labor Market Segmentation:
  • Youth unemployment is around 24%, and over 20% of 20-29-year-olds are neither employed nor in education.
  • Fixed-term contracts dominate, with 85% of all new contracts being temporary, often with short durations.
• Labor Costs:
  • Real wages have continued to rise even with high unemployment.
  • Minimum wage in France is among the highest in the euro area, relative to the median wage.
• Wage Bargaining:
  • Enterprise-level wage negotiations are limited by social partners' constraints.
  • Mandatory annual wage negotiations for large companies, combined with high dismissal costs, create pressure for wage increases.
• Training and Education:
  • There is a mismatch between skills and labor market demands.
  • The professional training system has been slow to respond to job seeker needs and lacks targeting.
• Unemployment Benefits:
  • Eligibility is lenient, and benefits are generous.
  • Workers become eligible after 4 months of service and receive up to 24 months of benefits after 2 years.
  • No progressive reduction in benefits for long-term unemployed, and job search conditions are not strictly enforced.

Reform Agenda

• Recent Reforms:
  • The 2013 Job Security Act promoted collaboration between social partners.
  • "Job preservation agreements" allowed firms in economic difficulty to renegotiate terms for up to two years.
  • These agreements were restrictive and not widely used.
• Challenges:
  • Institutional rigidities such as high minimum wage, costly dismissal procedures, and limited wage flexibility contribute to low employment and high unemployment.
  • The need for a multi-pronged reform approach is emphasized to address structural unemployment and improve labor market outcomes.

Key Information

• Social Spending: France's public social spending reached 31.4% of GDP in 2011, with pensions being the largest component at 14.2%.
• Healthcare: France spends the most on public healthcare, with potential savings of 1.3% of GDP.
• Unemployment: Unemployment benefits are generous, with a cap of €7,000 per month.
• Minimum Wage: France's minimum wage is the highest in the euro area, relative to the median wage.
• Dismissal Costs: France has some of the highest dismissal costs in the OECD, contributing to labor market duality.
• Training System: The professional training system costs about 1.4% of GDP but lacks responsiveness and targeting.

Conclusion

The document highlights the need for comprehensive reforms in France to address high public spending, inefficiencies in social programs, and rigid labor market structures. These reforms aim to reduce fiscal pressure, improve labor market flexibility, and enhance the efficiency and targeting of social and health expenditures. Institutional changes, such as regular spending reviews and improved coordination between social partners, are seen as critical to achieving these goals.