2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Norway_Selected_Issues_72页_13mb

Norway Selected Issues Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of key economic issues in Norway, focusing on housing market valuation, tax reform, and gender equality in labor markets. It is part of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) periodic consultation with Norway, published in July 2017.

1. Are House Prices Overvalued in Norway? A Cross-Country Analysis

Key Points:

• House prices in Norway have risen substantially over the past two decades, outpacing income growth and exceeding the OECD average.
• The housing boom has been particularly strong in the Oslo area, with house price inflation reaching double digits in 2016.
• The house price-to-income (PTI) ratio has more than doubled since the mid-1990s, indicating a high level of overvaluation.
• The debt-to-income ratio has also increased, reaching 227% as of end-2016, among the highest in the OECD.

Factors Driving House Price Uptrend:

• Demand factors: Strong income growth, low unemployment, and rising household financial wealth have increased housing demand.
• Supply factors: Housing supply has not kept up with demand, due to natural and man-made constraints, such as limited land availability and local regulations.
• Institutional factors: Generous tax incentives for housing, such as full mortgage interest deductibility and reduced property tax bases, have lowered the cost of homeownership and contributed to overvaluation.

Model Findings:

• A cross-country panel model estimates the long-run determinants of real house prices.
• The model includes variables such as real disposable income, mortgage rates, household net financial wealth, housing stock, and tax relief.
• The model explains about 86% of the cross-country variation in house prices.
• In 2016 Q4, Norwegian house prices were estimated to be 16% above the long-run equilibrium implied by fundamentals, comparable to the 2007 peak but still slightly lower.

Policy Implications:

• High and overvalued house prices pose a risk to financial and macroeconomic stability.
• Macroprudential measures such as tighter LTV limits, higher mortgage risk weights, and debt-to-income limits should be considered.
• Tax reform and structural measures are necessary to improve macro-financial resilience and reduce housing market volatility.

2. Closer to Best Practice – Tax Reform in Norway

Key Points:

• A tax reform, initiated in late 2014 and implemented from 2016, aims to reduce the overall tax burden and shift the tax structure away from high income taxes.
• The reform includes lowering corporate and personal income taxes, raising reduced VAT rates, introducing financial activity taxes, and better aligning taxable housing wealth with market values.
• The reform is intended to stimulate innovation, boost productivity, improve labor supply, and promote business investments.

Policy Objectives:

• Boosting productivity and promoting investments through tax incentives for innovation and business.
• Improving labor supply by reducing the tax wedge and encouraging full-time employment.
• Broadening the VAT tax base to increase tax revenue without distorting consumption.
• Lowering household debt bias by reducing the tax deductibility of mortgage interest and improving housing market stability.
• Other considerations include aligning tax treatment with market values and reducing regressive aspects of the current tax system.

Tax Reform Outcomes:

• The reform is expected to support the transition from an oil and gas-driven growth model to a more sustainable long-term growth path.
• Tax revenue remains high compared to other OECD countries, but has decreased due to the oil sector downturn.
• The tax burden is primarily on income taxes, with over 70% of total tax revenue coming from income taxes.

3. Gender at the Frontier: Policies to Underpin High-Quality Labor Supply

Key Points:

• Norway has high female part-time work and persistent wage gaps between genders.
• Male employment rates have declined significantly, especially in recent years.
• The young population is at risk of exclusion from the labor market, with limited opportunities and high reliance on public support.

Policy Recommendations:

• Promote gender equality and labor participation through measures such as improving childcare access, parental leave policies, and reducing the tax burden on second earners.
• Enhance labor market flexibility and reduce barriers to employment, particularly for women and youth.
• Support education and lifelong learning to improve skills and employment prospects.
• Improve attitudes toward domestic work and promote greater labor mobility.

Key Information Summary

Housing Market:

• House prices have more than tripled since 1995 and more than doubled since 2000.
• The PTI ratio has doubled since the mid-1990s, with Oslo being among the top in the world.
• Housing affordability is a growing concern, especially with the influx of asylum seekers.
• Tax incentives and a small rental market have contributed to the overvaluation of housing.

Tax Reform:

• The reform aims to reduce the overall tax burden and shift the tax structure toward more neutral and efficient taxation.
• It includes measures to improve productivity, labor supply, and investment.
• The tax system is being reformed to align with OECD best practices.

Gender and Labor Market:

• Female employment is high but often part-time, with persistent wage gaps.
• Male employment rates have declined, especially in the context of economic and demographic changes.
• Youth labor market integration is a challenge, with high reliance on public benefits and limited opportunities.
• Policies to support gender equality and improve labor market participation are essential for long-term economic growth.

Conclusion

• The housing market in Norway is overvalued, posing risks to financial stability.
• Tax reform is a key tool to improve macroeconomic resilience and reduce distortions in the housing market.
• Gender equality and labor market policies are critical for ensuring a high-quality labor supply and supporting economic transition.