IMF国际货币组织全球-Republic-of-Lithuania_Selected-Issues_29页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Republic of Lithuania: Selected Issues

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of two key issues in Lithuania: skills mismatch and active labor market policies (ALMPs), and the interest rate gap and financial conditions. The report was prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as part of its periodic consultation with Lithuania, based on available data up to July 12, 2019.

A. Labor Market in Lithuania

Key Points:

Labor Market Flexibility: Lithuania has a highly flexible labor market, with wages being very responsive to unemployment levels. This was evident during the 2009 crisis, where real wage growth dropped sharply from 14% in 2007 to -9% in 2009.
Structural Unemployment: Despite labor market flexibility, structural unemployment has historically been high. It appears to be gradually declining, with the unemployment rate falling below pre-crisis estimates of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU), which is estimated to be around 7%.
Beveridge Curve: The curve shifted outward during the crisis but has partially recovered, suggesting some inefficiencies in the labor market that have not fully resolved.
Skill Mismatch: Lithuania experiences significant skill mismatches, particularly with a high proportion of overqualification and a relative shortage of high-skilled workers, alongside an oversupply of low- and medium-skilled workers. These mismatches are linked to past labor market imbalances and deficiencies in the education system.

Skill Mismatch by Sector:

Skill-Intensive Sectors: ICT, finance, and communication face labor shortages.
Less-Skill-Intensive Sectors: Construction, trade, and transport have excess labor.

B. Skills Mismatch in Lithuania

Key Findings:

Aggregate Skills Mismatch Index: Lithuania has one of the highest skill mismatches in Europe, as per the index developed by Estevao and Tsounta (2011). This index measures the gap between labor supply and demand by education level.
Education and Training Gaps: The education system has not aligned with the skills demanded by the labor market, leading to overqualification and underqualification issues. Lithuania has a higher field-of-study mismatch (35%) compared to the EU average (32%).
Impact on Productivity: Skill mismatch negatively affects productivity due to inefficient workforce allocation and limited accumulation of firm-specific knowledge. Overqualified workers are less likely to participate in training, while underqualified workers hinder firm performance.
Empirical Evidence: A study on 26 European countries (including Lithuania) found a negative and statistically significant impact of skill mismatch on total factor productivity (TFP) and labor productivity.

C. Active Labor Market Policy in Lithuania

Overview of ALMPs:

Types of ALMPs: Include job search assistance (JSA), vocational education and training (VET), employment subsidies, and public works programs (PWP).
Effectiveness of ALMPs:
- JSA has short-term employment impacts for disadvantaged groups.
- VET programs are more effective for the long-term unemployed.
- Employment subsidies have limited or negative impacts across all time horizons.
- PWP provides temporary employment but may signal low productivity to employers.

Current ALMP Landscape in Lithuania:

Low Investment and Participation: ALMP spending in Lithuania is low at 0.3% of GDP in 2016, compared to OECD countries. Only 3.7% of the unemployed participated in training programs in 2016.
Funding Sources: Relies heavily on European funds, particularly the European Social Fund (ESF), which accounted for almost two-thirds of ALMP funding in 2015.
Training Focus: Training programs are often centered on low-skilled tasks that are already oversupplied, failing to address skill shortages in high-demand areas like ICT and engineering.

D. Policy Implications

Recommendations for ALMPs:

Increase ALMP Spending: Funding should be stabilized and sourced from predictable public resources rather than being dependent on European funds.
Align with Cyclical Conditions: ALMP spending should reflect labor market conditions and not remain constant during economic downturns.
Enhance Training Programs: Training and re-training should focus on high-demand skills. The current participation rate (3%) is inadequate, especially given the 40% of unemployed with no professional qualification.
Improve Program Design: Participation rules should allow for longer and more expensive training programs to better engage low-skilled, older, and rural workers.
Reduce Reliance on Employment Subsidies: These are currently the main ALMP measure but are less effective. Resources should be redirected to training programs.
Revise Voucher System: Introduce a systematic rating system to help recipients choose the most suitable training programs based on labor market outcomes.
Comprehensive Evaluation: Regular and long-term performance evaluation of ALMPs should be conducted to improve their design and effectiveness.

Interest Rate Gap and Financial Conditions

Key Concepts:

Natural Interest Rate (r)*: The rate that equates domestic and foreign savings and investments when output is at potential. It differs across countries and is influenced by trend growth and real shocks.
Interest Rate Gap: The difference between the natural interest rate and the ECB's policy rate. It indicates whether monetary policy is accommodative or restrictive.
Monetary Policy Stance: Since at least 2011, Lithuania's monetary policy has been largely accommodative. However, financial conditions tightened after the 2009 crisis and only began to recover in 2016.

Methodologies:

Laubach-Williams Framework: Used to estimate the natural interest rate. It is based on a reduced-form model with time-varying preference parameters.
Market-Implied Natural Interest Rate: Reflects investors' expectations of future interest rates and is influenced by financial market data.
DSGE Models: Often show volatility in estimates of r*, which can lead to policy missteps, especially if the real rate is set to a negative value.

Policy Implications:

The natural interest rate in Lithuania has declined by about 2.5 percentage points over the past two decades, mainly due to lower productivity growth.
The interest rate gap is an important tool for assessing the stance of monetary policy, but its interpretation must be cautious due to uncertainty in estimates.
Financial conditions are influenced not only by monetary policy but also by broader euro area financial factors.