20170428-法国巴黎银行-EM_STRATEGY_PLUS_28页_3mb

报告摘要

EM Strategy Summary - 28 April 2017

Core Content

This document outlines the Emerging Markets (EM) Strategy update for the week of 28 April 2017, focusing on macroeconomic outlook, FX and interest rate trends, and specific trade recommendations across different regions. The report is produced by BNP Paribas and Turk Ekonomi Bank A.S., with insights from various strategists.

Main Themes

1. Positive Tone at Spring IMF/WB Meetings

Investors and public officials showed a positive outlook on the global macroeconomic picture and EM.
EM growth is expected to continue due to low US interest rates and strong Chinese growth.
Risks to EM are seen as largely external, not internal.

2. US Tax Reform Plan

The Trump administration's tax reform plan includes tax cuts not fully paid for upfront and a change in taxation of foreign earnings.
The absence of a tax amnesty is not bullish for the USD, but could have negative implications for offshore financial centers like Singapore.
The plan may lead to reduced incentive for US corporates to hold cash offshore, which could affect FX flows.
A territorial tax system could be beneficial for the USD, but only on margins and may disproportionately impact small, open economies like Singapore and Switzerland.

3. Chinese Rates: Light at the End of the Tunnel

Concerns over a regulatory crackdown on interbank leverage have increased bond yields.
The PBoC may hike short-term policy rates by another 10bp, but the momentum is bearish.
The team recommends patience for now, as the rate environment remains uncertain.
The 10y CGB yield rose to 3.5% this week due to tight liquidity and regulatory actions.

4. South Africa: Grinding to a Halt

The USDZAR short recommendation reached 13.00, and the target was extended to 12.70.
The ZAR is expected to strengthen further, but at a slower pace due to narrowing rate differentials and possible monetary loosening.
The team suggests buying USDZAR below 12.50.

5. Turkey: Monetary Policy to Remain Tight

The CBRT surprised markets with a 50bp rate hike and maintained hawkish rhetoric.
Inflation is expected to temporarily dip to single digits after April/May 2017.
The central bank may be giving itself room to maneuver if inflation surprises to the upside.
The team recommends buying the 10y part of the USD bond curve.

6. Latam/Brazil: Increasing the Hedging Position

The team remains structurally bullish on Brazil but increased hedging due to geopolitical risks and uncertainty around social security reform.
Long USDBRL call spread was increased to hedge tail risks.

7. Chile: Back in the Paying Camp

The team recommends paying 5y CLPxCAM due to upside risk in the Chilean curve.
The model indicates a positive risk tilt.

Key Recommendations

Strategy	PV01/Notional	Entry Level	Target	Stop	P/L
Pay 5y CLPxCAM	USD 8k	3.37%	3.77%	3.00%	+0 bp
Sell USDZAR	USD 10mn	13.65	12.70	-	2.94%
Buy 2Y1Y THB NDIRS	10K USD	2.32%	2.00%	2.50%	+15 bp
Pay 1Y1Y RUB XCCY	5k USD	7.23%	7.30%	6.67%	-2 bp
Buy USDHKD call spread	USD100m	0.54%	-	-	-
Long USDBRL CS k=3.30-3.60	USD 55mn	0.54%	-	-	0.2%
Long USDMXN Seagull	USD 50mn	0.45%	-	-	-0.10%
Buy Turkey $ 2027s	USD 6.3mn	311 bp	292 bp	350 bp	+19 bp
Sell Brazil 5Y CDS	USD 22.5m	229	220	265	+9 bp
Switch from Saudi Arabia $ '46s to Qatar $ '46s	5k USD	-16 bp	-35 bp	0 bp	+4 bp

What's Up Next Week

In Asia

South Korean presidential election on 9 May, likely to keep geopolitical focus.
PMI data release globally, with Asia supported by global growth.
Trade figures and CPI inflation data for South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia.