【高盛】2024私募股权转折点报告_13页_1mb

报告摘要

Private Equity and Market Opportunities in 2024

Core Content

This report explores the evolving landscape of private equity (PE) and financial sponsor activity in 2024, emphasizing the role of financial sponsors in catalyzing opportunities across various capital markets. The year is viewed as a period of rebalancing, driven by improved market sentiment, increased capital availability, and the growth of alternative investments.

Key Trends and Opportunities

1. Market Rebalancing and Capital Availability

Improved Sentiment and Capital Markets: As markets continue to heal, sentiment has improved, leading to a rebalancing of capital markets.
Dry Powder Surplus: Alternatives dry powder is estimated at $3.9T, with private equity and private credit at $1.2T and $443B respectively.
PE Assets Under Management: Estimated at $6T, these assets are poised to drive a robust ripple effect across markets.

2. Sponsor M&A Activity

Rebound in M&A Volumes: Sponsor M&A volumes reached a 10-year low in 2023 due to conservative market conditions, but are expected to rebound in 2024.
Q1 Activity: M&A volumes increased by 34% YoY in Q1 2024, indicating a strong start to the year.
Transaction Types: A variety of sponsor M&A activities, including public-to-private, sponsor-to-sponsor, and strategic acquisitions, are expected to grow.
DPI Pressures: LPs are focused on distributions to paid-in capital (DPI), pushing sponsors to monetize their portfolio companies through sales, dividend recaps, or continuation vehicles.

3. Public Equity Markets as a Liquidity Alternative

ECM Issuance Growth: Global sponsor-backed ECM issuance increased by 62% YoY in 2023, with Q1 2024 seeing $17B in global IPO proceeds, up 90% YoY.
IPO Barometer: Goldman Sachs' IPO Issuance Barometer reached 137 in March 2024, the highest since February 2022, indicating improved conditions for IPOs.
Secondary Offerings: Secondary public offerings, including follow-ons and block trades, are expected to accelerate, offering additional liquidity options.

4. Mainstreaming of Secondaries

Resilience in Secondaries: Despite a challenging IPO market, secondaries have become a mainstream asset class, providing liquidity for LPs.
Continuation Funds: These funds allow GPs to retain assets during high volatility, offering more flexibility in exit strategies.
Expected Growth: Secondary transaction volume is expected to increase to around $60B, driven by improved valuations and reduced discounts.

5. Leveraged Finance and Refinancing Opportunities

Debt Maturation Peak: Over $500B of leveraged finance maturities are due by 2028, prompting companies to seek refinancing solutions.
Dividend Recaps: These have reemerged as a tool for companies to return cash to sponsors, with Q1 2024 seeing $24B in dividend issuance.
Flexible Financing: Refinancing strategies are increasingly tailored, incorporating structured equity instruments like preferred shares and convertibles.

6. Private Credit as a Strategic Tool

Attractive Asset Class: Private credit is becoming a flexible and scalable option for investors, offering tailored financing solutions.
Customization of Risk and Return: Private credit strategies are used to facilitate M&A, recapitalizations, and replace cash-pay debt with PIK or amend-and-extend structures.
Collaboration with Public Markets: Goldman Sachs is leveraging its integrated approach between leveraged finance and private credit to deliver bespoke solutions.

Conclusion

The convergence of macroeconomic recovery, increased capital availability, and evolving market dynamics is creating a fertile environment for financial sponsors to drive strategic and financing opportunities in 2024. The report highlights the importance of proactive capital deployment, flexible financing solutions, and the growing role of secondaries and private credit in shaping the future of capital markets.

Key Figures and Sources

Dry Powder: $3.9T (alternatives), $1.2T (PE), $443B (private credit)
PE AUM: $6T
Q1 2024 M&A Growth: 34% YoY
Q1 2024 ECM Issuance: $17B, up 90% YoY
Q1 2024 Dividend Recap Volume: $24B
Sources: Preqin, Dealogic, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, FactSet, LevFin Insights

Main Contributors

Vivek Bantwal: Head of the Global Financing Group
Rob Pulford: Head of Americas Financial and Strategic Investors Group
Elizabeth Reed: Global Head of the Equity Syndicate Desk
David Kamo: Global Head of Financial Sponsor M&A
Christina Minnis: Global Head of Credit Finance and Acquisition Finance
Michael Voris: Head of Structured Equity and Alternative Capital Solutions
Greg Olafson: Head of Private Credit, Asset & Wealth Management
Pete Lyon: Global Head of Financial Institutions Group, Firmwide Alternative Asset Managers Solutions