2024-06-02-IMF-哥斯达黎加_技术援助报告普遍基本养老金_目标和制约因素（英）_55页_1mb

Technical Assistance Report: Universal Basic Pension: Objectives and Constraints

1. Background:
Costa Rica is facing demographic shifts, including aging and a shrinking working-age population, which will increase pressure on public finances and pension systems. The introduction of a Universal Basic Pension (PBU) aims to address financial sustainability and old-age poverty but raises concerns about fiscal implications and unintended consequences.

2. Analysis:

• Pension System: Costa Rica has a multi-pillar pension system (contributory and noncontributory). The IVM system faces financial sustainability challenges, with reserves expected to deplete by the mid-2030s under current projections.
• PBU Proposal: The proposed PBU is a fully funded, universal flat-benefit scheme. It may worsen IVM’s financial position, accelerate reserve depletion, and increase public expenditure without creating additional revenue sources.
• Fiscal and Welfare Impact: PBU funding relies on redirected resources from other programs (e.g., RNC). Replacing targeted social pensions with a universal transfer could reduce redistributive effects and may not effectively alleviate poverty in the short term. Gradual implementation could delay PBU’s full roll-out indefinitely.

3. Recommendations:

• Coverage and Adequacy Improvements: Focus on expanding the reach of existing noncontributory and contributory schemes, particularly by ameliorating administrative gaps and eligibility rules.
• Alternative to PBU: Explore measures to enhance IVM coverage and RNC targeting with less fiscal burden or similar poverty-reduction effects than PBU.
• Policy Refinements: Strengthen coordination between tax and social security authorities, enable auto-enrollment for the self-employed, and reconsider vesting periods to improve equity and incentives.
• Data-Driven Approach: Enhance administrative capacity (e.g., via SINIRUBE) to improve targeting of social transfers.
• Mandatory Fiscal Impact Assessments: Ensure reforms include standardized long-term fiscal and welfare analyses.

4. Conclusions:
The PBU design needs refinement to avoid undermining existing pension incentives. Better-targeted programs may be more effective and sustainable than a universal basic pension in addressing old age poverty.