20151019-招商证券_香港_-Eurozone_policy_tailwinds_likely_to_fade_going_into_2016_11页_519kb

A-share Research Highlights Summary (October 19, 2015)

Core Content

The document outlines the key research highlights and investment recommendations for various sectors in the Chinese and global markets, focusing on financial and economic indicators, company performance, and sector-specific opportunities. It also includes a list of recent reports and their respective analysts, emphasizing the importance of monitoring macroeconomic trends and corporate developments.

Main Viewpoints

• Economic Outlook: High unemployment, poor competitiveness, and elevated debt remain significant challenges. The medium-term growth is expected to be sluggish, with a likely annual growth rate below 2%.
• Currency and Political Risk: Investors should be cautious of currency risk due to monetary policy divergence and regional political risk.
• Supply Chain Finance: The sector is transitioning to a new era of integration, driven by the Internet. The integration of business flow, logistics flow, capital flow, and information flow is expected to enhance the sector's efficiency and growth.
• Opportunities in Supply Chain Finance: Eight major types of enterprises are expected to lead the development of the Supply Chain Finance market, including information management vendors, E-commerce platforms, large core enterprises, and commercial banks.
• Investment Recommendations: Several companies are highlighted for investment, with ratings ranging from BUY to SELL, and specific focus on those with strong user base, preemptive advantages, and active transformation in the sector.
• Market Performance and Earnings: The document provides detailed market cap, share price, EPS, and P/E ratios for listed companies across multiple sectors, offering insights into their current and projected performance.

Key Information

Investment Recommendations

Auto & Auto Parts

• Brilliance China (1114 HK): BUY
• China ZhengTong Auto (1728 HK): BUY
• Geely Automobile (175 HK): BUY
• BAIC Motor (1958 HK): BUY
• Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): NEUTRAL
• Fuyao Glass (3606 HK): BUY
• China Harmony Auto (3836 HK): NEUTRAL
• Zhongsheng Group (881 HK): NEUTRAL

Oil and Gas

• Sinopec Oilfield Service (1033 HK): NEUTRAL
• China Oilfield Services (2883 HK): NEUTRAL
• Petrochina (857 HK): BUY
• CNOOC (883 HK): BUY

Property

• China Resources Land (1109 HK): BUY
• Yuzhou Property (1628 HK): BUY
• KWG Property (1813 HK): BUY
• Country Garden (2007 HK): NEUTRAL
• Agile Property (3383 HK): BUY
• Gome Electrical (493 HK): BUY
• JD (JD US): BUY

Technology, Media & Telecom

• China Telecom (728 HK): BUY
• China Unicom (762 HK): NEUTRAL
• China Mobile (941 HK): BUY
• Wisdom (1661 HK): BUY
• C CHUANGLIAN ED (2371 HK): BUY
• Kingdee (268 HK): NEUTRAL
• Chinasoft (354 HK): BUY
• Kingsoft (3888 HK): BUY
• Boyaa Interactive (434 HK): NEUTRAL
• Car Inc (699 HK): BUY
• Tencent (700 HK): BUY

Alternative Energy

• GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK): BUY
• Xinyi Solar (968 HK): BUY

Port & Shipping

• China Merchants Hldg (144 HK): BUY
• Orient Overseas (316 HK): BUY

Machinery & Equipment

• Zoomlion Heavy (1157 HK): NEUTRAL
• Lonking (3339 HK): NEUTRAL
• CRSC (3969 HK): BUY
• Sany Heavy (631 HK): SELL

Environmental Protection

• Technovator (1206 HK): BUY

Industrial Goods

• TK group (2283 HK): BUY
• Wasion Group (3393 HK): BUY

Construction

• China Rail Cons (1186 HK): NEUTRAL
• CCCC (1800 HK): NEUTRAL
• CMEC (1829 HK): BUY
• China State Construction (3311 HK): BUY
• CRG (390 HK): BUY

Gaming, Lodging & Leisure

• Wynn Macau (1128 HK): BUY
• Paradise Ent (1180 HK): BUY
• Sands China (1928 HK): BUY
• MGM China (2282 HK): NEUTRAL
• Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK): BUY
• SJM (880 HK): NEUTRAL
• Home Inns (HMIN US): BUY
• China Lodging (HTHT US): BUY
• Melco Crown (MPEL US): NEUTRAL

Key Risks

• Macroeconomic sentiment may be weaker than expected.
• Regulatory policies may tighten, affecting the progress of Supply Chain Finance.
• The actual performance of the Supply Chain Finance sector may fall below expectations.

Economic Data Highlights

• China:
  • Urban investment (ytd): 10.90% (Prior: 10.90%, Forecast: 10.80%)
  • Industrial Output YY: 6.10% (Prior: 6.10%, Forecast: 6.00%)
  • Retail Sales YY: 10.80% (Prior: 10.80%, Forecast: 10.80%)
  • GDP YY: 7.00% (Prior: 7.00%, Forecast: 6.80%)
• U.S.:
  • NAHB Housing Market Indx: 62.00
  • Building Permits: 1.17mn (Forecast: 1.16mn)
• Germany:
  • Producer Prices MM: -0.50%
• Euro zone:
  • Consumer Confidence Flash: -7.10 (Forecast: -7.50)
• Japan:
  • Flash Manufacturing Nikkei PMI for Oct: 50.90
• Markit PMI:
  • Germany Mfg Flash PMI: 52.50 (Forecast: 51.80)
  • Germany Service Flash PMI: 54.30 (Forecast: 54.00)
  • Euro zone Mfg Flash PMI: 52.00 (Forecast: 51.80)
  • Euro zone Service Flash PMI: 54.00 (Forecast: 53.50)
  • Euro zone Comp Flash PMI: 53.90 (Forecast: 53.50)
• U.S.:
  • Markit Mfg PMI Flash: 53

Recent Reports

• 2015-10-16:
  • Wynn Macau (1128 HK): Angela HAN LEE
  • Eurozone policy tailwinds likely to fade going into 2016: Lynn SONG, Xiaolong LU, Cliff ZHAO, David XIE
  • China Banks: Donger WANG, Sean CHENG
  • Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK): Angela HAN LEE
• 2015-10-15:
  • China Resources Land (1109 HK): John So, Hayden Zhang
• 2015-10-14:
  • CITIC Bank (998 HK): Donger WANG, Sean CHENG
• 2015-10-13:
  • Macau Gaming - 3Q15E preview: Angela HAN LEE
• 2015-10-12:
  • Car Inc (699 HK): Jeff HAO, Andrew HUANG
  • China Overseas Land & Inv. (688 HK): John So, Hayden Zhang
  • Global Macro Weekly Digest (Issue 31): Lynn SONG, Xiaolong LU, Cliff ZHAO, David XIE
  • AAC Tech (2018 HK): Alex Ng, Marley Ngan
  • Geely Automobile (175 HK): Yonghuo LIANG
• 2015-10-09:
  • Zoomlion (1157 HK): Yiding Jiao, Yun Wei
  • HK Market Strategy Bi-weekly – (Vol. 17 2015): Cliff Zhao, Ivy Zhao, Vincent Ji
  • FOMC minutes hint at increasing risk for further rate hike delay: Lynn SONG, Xiaolong LU, Cliff ZHAO, David XIE
• 2015-10-08:
  • Truly (732 HK): Alex Ng, Marley Ngan
  • CQRCB (3618 HK): Donger WANG, Sean CHENG
  • GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK): Nelson LEE, Jinyun LI
• 2015-10-07:
  • China Property Sector: John So, Hayden Zhang
  • Sinomax (1418 HK): Eugene MAK, Lewis WONG
• 2015-10-06:
  • PAX Global (327 HK): Alex Ng, Marley Ngan
• 2015-10-05:
  • Wasion Group (3393 HK): Vivien CHAN, Lewis WONG
  • Global Macro Weekly Digest (Issue 30): Lynn SONG, Xiaolong LU, Cliff ZHAO, David XIE
  • September US jobs data weakness likely eliminates chance of October hike: Lynn SONG, Xiaolong LU, Cliff ZHAO, David XIE