2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Morocco_2012_Article_IV_Consultation_and_First_Review_Under_the_Two_68页_1mb

Summary of Morocco: 2012 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Two-Year Precautionary and Liquidity Line

Core Content

This document summarizes the findings of the 2012 Article IV consultation and the first review under the Two-Year Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) for Morocco. It outlines the economic performance, key challenges, and policy recommendations from the IMF staff, as well as the views of the Executive Board and the statement by the Executive Director for Morocco.

Main Points

1. Economic Context and Challenges

• Economic Performance: Morocco has experienced solid economic growth, low inflation, and stable external reserves, but this has been challenged by:
  • Deterioration in the European economy.
  • High oil and food prices.
  • Lower-than-average agriculture production in 2012.
• Fiscal and External Buffers: The erosion of fiscal and external buffers due to repeated external shocks and domestic rigidities has raised concerns.
• Growth Drag: The poor cereal harvest in 2012 negatively impacted food imports and growth.
• Exchange Rate: Increased flexibility in the exchange rate is needed to address external pressures.

2. Policy Objectives and Strategy

• The IMF-supported PLL program is on track, and Morocco continues to meet the qualification criteria.
• The authorities are focused on:
  • Fiscal sustainability.
  • Competitiveness.
  • Inclusive growth.
  • Financial sector stability.
• The economic strategy includes:
  • Prudent monetary and financial policies.
  • Fiscal consolidation.
  • Structural reforms to enhance competitiveness, growth, and employment.

3. Recent Developments and Outlook

• Growth: 2012 GDP growth slowed to 3.2%, but nonagricultural GDP growth remained robust at 4.5%.
• Inflation: Headline inflation was 1.6% in November 2012, with core inflation close to zero.
• Fiscal Deficit: The 2012 fiscal deficit was reduced to 6% of GDP from 6.8% in 2011.
• Current Account: The deficit widened to 8.8% of GDP in 2012, but reserves stabilized at around four months of imports.
• Outlook for 2013: Growth is expected to rise slightly to 4.5%, inflation to increase to about 2.5%, and the current account deficit to contract by more than two percentage points of GDP.

4. Key Challenges and Policy Discussions

• Fiscal Sustainability:
  • The 2013 budget aims to reduce the deficit to 4.7% of GDP.
  • A broader tax reform is planned to broaden the tax base and stabilize tax revenues.
  • The government plans to reduce the wage bill to less than 11% of GDP.
• Subsidy Reform:
  • The current subsidy system is deemed inefficient and unsustainable.
  • The authorities aim to reduce subsidy costs to 3% of GDP by 2016.
  • A more targeted social protection system is being developed to replace universal subsidies.
• Competitiveness and Growth:
  • Structural reforms are needed in product and labor markets, as well as in human capital and infrastructure.
  • Investment in SMEs and export-oriented sectors is emphasized.
• Financial Sector:
  • The financial sector remains sound, with a regulatory capital-to-risk-weighted assets ratio of 12.2% and low NPLs (5%).
  • Banks are diversifying funding sources and expanding collateral eligibility.

5. Risks to the Outlook

• External Risks:
  • A worsening of the euro area crisis or prolonged stagnation in Europe could negatively impact growth and the balance of payments.
  • A spike in oil prices could increase fiscal and current account deficits.
• Domestic Risks:
  • A slower-than-needed pace of reforms may undermine fiscal sustainability and growth.
• Policy Response:
  • Prudent fiscal policy and moderately accommodative monetary policy.
  • More flexibility in the exchange rate.
  • Accelerating subsidy reforms and implementing a targeted social protection system.
  • Proactive communication to build consensus and support for reforms.

Key Recommendations

• Continue the PLL program to address external risks.
• Accelerate subsidy reform and move toward a more targeted social protection system.
• Implement structural reforms to improve competitiveness, growth, and employment.
• Maintain fiscal discipline while ensuring growth-friendly measures.
• Enhance the communication strategy to support the reform agenda and manage public expectations.

Conclusion

• The staff report recommends concluding the 2012 Article IV consultation and approving the first review under the PLL.
• The program is on track, but the environment has become more challenging, necessitating continued implementation of reforms.
• Morocco's economic strategy remains appropriate, with a focus on fiscal sustainability, competitiveness, and inclusive growth.