2017年-世界发展银行全球_Tajikistan_Jobs_Diagnostic___Strategic_Framework_for_Jobs_119页_9mb

Summary of Tajikistan Jobs Diagnostic: Strategic Framework for Jobs

Core Content

This report, Tajikistan Jobs Diagnostic: Strategic Framework for Jobs, provides an analysis of the labor market challenges in Tajikistan and outlines a strategic framework to improve employment outcomes. It highlights the need to place jobs at the center of economic development, given the country's reliance on remittances and the low productivity in the labor market.

Main Challenges

Economic Growth and Jobs

• Economic Growth: Tajikistan has experienced strong economic growth since the early 2000s, with GDP growing at an average of 7.2% annually between 2003 and 2013. However, job creation has been weak, with employment expanding at only 2.1% annually.
• Poverty and Remittances: Despite the decline in poverty from about 65% in 2003 to 23.5% in 2009, poverty remains high. Remittances now account for about 40% of GDP, making Tajikistan the most remittance-dependent country in the world.
• Structural Transformation: The economy has not undergone significant structural transformation, leading to low labor productivity and limited job creation in the formal sector.
• Vulnerability: The economy is vulnerable to external shocks, particularly due to its reliance on exports to Russia, Kazakhstan, and China, and its dependence on remittances.

The Workforce

• Potential Workforce: The working-age population (15–64 years) has grown from 3.31 million in 2000 to 5.23 million in 2015, with about 40,000 people entering the labor force each year.
• Labor Force Participation: Only 43% of the working-age population is in the labor force, with a significant portion of women not participating. The female labor force participation rate was 27% in 2013, compared to 63% for males.
• Informal Sector: The majority of jobs are in the informal sector, with 39% of wage employees working informally in 2013. Informal employment is particularly high in rural areas and agriculture.
• Youth and Inequality: Youth (15–24 years) have weak job outcomes, with 40% of them being NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training), which is high by international standards. Female youth have higher NEET rates than male youth. Employment outcomes are strongly correlated with educational attainment.

Labor Market Outcomes

• Job Quality: Workers from richer households tend to have better quality and more stable jobs. Only 30% of workers in the poorest quintile are paid in regular installments, compared to 45% in the richest quintile.
• Education and Skills: Education and skills are key determinants of job quality. However, completion rates for secondary education may be declining, particularly among younger women.
• Informal Employment: A significant portion of workers are in low-productivity, informal jobs, often seasonal or temporary. The share of such jobs is increasing over time.

Labor Demand in the Formal Sector

• Formal Private Sector: The formal private sector is underdeveloped and faces significant challenges. It accounts for only 13% of total employment, and the entry rate of new firms is low.
• Firm Characteristics: Formal private firms are generally small and young, with 70% having fewer than 10 employees and 66% registered for six years or less. SOEs, though a small share of total firms, are generally larger and more established.
• Productivity: There is a wide dispersion in labor productivity across firm types, indicating allocative inefficiency. Larger firms in Tajikistan are not more productive and may increase productivity by laying off workers.
• SOE Inefficiency: SOEs are less productive than private sector firms, even when controlling for size, age, and location. This suggests that SOEs may be hindering competition and private sector growth.

Strategic Framework for Jobs

Pillar 1: Promoting Private Sector Growth

• Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Ensure macroeconomic stability and a conducive environment for private sector growth.
• Business Environment: Improve governance, reduce bureaucratic hurdles, and enhance the business environment to encourage firm entry and growth.
• Transport and Logistics: Reduce costs and improve trade facilitation to expand the formal sector.
• Access to Finance: Expand access to finance, especially for SMEs, to support firm growth and job creation.
• Local Value Chains and Rural SMEs: Strengthen local value chains and support rural SMEs to enhance employment opportunities.
• Formal Job Incentives: Improve incentives for formal employment to reduce reliance on informal and temporary jobs.
• Labor Force Participation: Promote policies that increase labor force participation, especially among women and youth.
• Migration Integration: Use labor market policies to better leverage migration for job creation and economic development.

Key Information

• Data Sources: The report is based on data from the World Bank / GIZ Tajikistan Jobs, Skills, and Migration Survey (2013), as well as other surveys and databases.
• Key Findings: The informal sector dominates employment, job creation is weak, and productivity remains low. Structural transformation is lagging, and there are significant regional and demographic disparities in employment outcomes.
• Recommendations: Focus on improving the business environment, enhancing access to finance, promoting formal employment, and supporting vulnerable groups through targeted labor market policies.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for a comprehensive jobs strategy to address the challenges of job creation, quality, and inequality in Tajikistan. It suggests that structural transformation and private sector development are critical to achieving sustainable economic growth and improving the standard of living.