2015年-世界发展银行全球_Jobs_or_Privileges___Unleashing_the_Employment_Potential_of_the_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_213页_10mb

报告摘要

MENA Development Report Summary: Jobs or Privileges

Core Content

The MENA Development Report: Jobs or Privileges – Unleashing the Employment Potential of the Middle East and North Africa is a comprehensive analysis of employment challenges in the region. It focuses on the role of the private sector in job creation and the impact of policy distortions and political connections on firm dynamics and labor markets.

Main Viewpoints

1. Private Sector Growth and Job Creation

Private sector growth in MENA has been moderate, while job growth has been weak.
Young firms and productive firms are the main drivers of job creation.
The region needs a larger pool of young and productive firms to boost employment.
Structural transformation has been slow, with limited shifts in employment from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors.

2. Policy Distortions and Firm Dynamics

Policy capture by politically connected firms is widespread and has a major impact on competition and job creation.
FDI in services in Jordan has led to job growth in domestic firms, but business regulations in Morocco have limited employment growth for young firms.
Energy subsidies in Egypt discourage growth in labor-intensive industries.
Discriminatory policies create an uneven playing field, reducing competition and innovation.
Regulatory uncertainty and complexity deter firm growth and innovation, particularly in Jordan and Egypt.

3. Industrial Policy and Its Limitations

Industrial policy in MENA has had limited success and often leads to policy capture.
Successful industrial policies in East Asia, such as in the Republic of Korea, are difficult to replicate due to institutional and cultural differences.
Industrial policy in MENA is often inefficient and distorted, leading to misallocation of resources and reduced competitiveness.

4. Political Connections and Employment

Politically connected firms in Egypt and Tunisia enjoy privileges such as subsidized land access, directed bank lending, and reduced regulatory burden.
These firms are more likely to survive and expand, while non-connected firms face higher inspection frequency and longer waiting times for permits.
Privileges are associated with reduced competition, lower productivity, and limited job creation.
The entry of politically connected firms into new sectors reduces aggregate employment growth.

Key Findings

Young firms are more likely to create jobs than older ones.
Productive firms contribute significantly to employment growth.
Policy capture by politically connected firms is a major constraint on private sector development.
Privileges such as land access, regulatory exemptions, and subsidies are widespread and systematically distort competition.
FDI in services in Jordan has had a positive impact on domestic job creation, but FDI in other sectors is restricted.
Mobility restrictions in the West Bank reduce competition and job growth.
Energy subsidies in Egypt reduce labor-intensive industry growth.
Regulatory uncertainty increases managerial time spent with government officials, reducing innovation and firm growth.
Politically connected firms are more likely to be located in industrial zones, receive fewer inspections, and have lower productivity.
Privileges are not limited to specific sectors, but are systematically embedded in the policy framework.

Policy Implications

Promoting competition and dismantling privileges for politically connected firms is essential for job creation and economic growth.
Reforms in regulatory frameworks and business environment can improve firm entry and growth.
Industrial policy should be restructured to avoid capture and ensure efficiency.
Enhancing transparency and reducing corruption is critical for fair competition and private sector development.

Data and Methodology

The report uses new data sources post-Arab Spring, including firm census databases, regulatory policy data, and state-business relation data.
It analyzes firm dynamics, productivity, and employment patterns across sectors and countries.
The data includes comparative analysis between MENA and other regions, highlighting differences in job creation mechanisms.

Appendices Overview

Appendix A examines economic growth and structural transformation.
Appendix B provides firm census and survey data across regions and sectors.
Appendix C discusses the employment share in large firms.
Appendix D explores employment growth over the life cycle of firms.
Appendix E and F analyze FDI inflows and regulatory policies.
Appendix G presents employment dynamics in politically connected firms.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that privileges for politically connected firms are a major barrier to private sector growth and job creation in MENA. It calls for reforms that promote fair competition, improve the business environment, and increase transparency. The data-driven approach and comparative analysis with East Asia provide a new understanding of the structural and policy challenges in the region.