2017年-世界发展银行全球_Zambia_Jobs_Diagnostic___Policy_Framework_28页_1mb

Zambia Jobs Diagnostic: Volume 2 - Policy Framework Summary

Core Content

This report is part of the Zambia Jobs Diagnostic series, focusing on the policy framework needed to support job creation and improve labor market outcomes. It aims to guide policymakers in designing an inclusive and productive jobs strategy, especially in the context of economic growth and structural transformation.

Main Objectives

1. Outline challenges to Zambia's jobs agenda at macro, household, and firm levels.
2. Analyze sectoral-level jobs with a focus on agribusiness value chains.
3. Propose policy priorities to create more formal sector jobs, improve informal sector job quality, and connect vulnerable groups to employment.

Key Challenges

• Low productivity in agriculture remains a major issue, particularly for poor Zambians.
• Employment growth has not kept pace with economic growth, especially in rural areas.
• Income inequality is rising, with significant gaps between formal and informal workers, rural and urban workers, and skilled and unskilled labor.
• Underemployment is increasing, particularly among youth and in informal service sectors.
• Dual economy characteristics are evident, with inefficient and efficient firms coexisting in the same sectors.

Main Findings

• Economic growth (7.3% annually between 2000 and 2014) has not translated into significant employment growth (2.81% annually), resulting in low employment elasticity (0.28) compared to other lower-middle-income countries.
• Agriculture employs a large share of the workforce (around 33% in 2014), but productivity in this sector has been stagnant.
• Formal employment is increasing, but only a small portion of the workforce is in formal jobs (13% of all employed in 2010).
• Urban areas are seeing rising labor force participation, while rural areas are experiencing declining participation.
• Women and low-skilled workers face greater challenges in accessing quality jobs and higher earnings.

Sectoral Analysis

• Agribusiness value chains, such as poultry and aquaculture, have high potential for job creation.
• Commercial farming and agro-processing are expanding, contributing to non-copper exports.
• Beef and dairy value chains have the potential to create up to 100,000 formal jobs, along with increasing productivity and demand for smallholders.
• Manufacturing has lower productivity than other sectors, despite positive investment trends.
• Productivity differences across sectors and firm sizes are significant, with older, foreign, and exporting firms being more productive.

Policy Framework

Pillar 1: Developing macroeconomic and regulatory policies with jobs in mind

• Policies should support inclusive and productive growth.
• Encourage investment in agro-processing and export-oriented industries.
• Improve access to credit and market linkages for smallholder farmers.
• Enhance regulatory environments to support private sector development.

Pillar 2: Strengthening labor regulations and skills development programs

• Focus on improving job quality in the informal sector.
• Promote skills development to ensure economic growth benefits all.
• Address gender wage gaps, which are narrowing but still significant.
• Support formal employment by improving labor regulations and social protection.

Pillar 3: Sectoral and regional policies to increase labor demand

• Target high-potential regions such as the Eastern and Northern Provinces.
• Leverage agro-processing to create high-productivity jobs in areas of high poverty density.
• Strengthen linkages between smallholders and commercial farms.
• Promote cross-border trade to expand market access for agro-based goods.

Key Opportunities

• Agro-based industries offer significant potential for job creation and productivity gains.
• Value chains in poultry and aquaculture can provide inclusive growth by increasing demand for smallholder inputs.
• Formalization of the economy is increasing, but formal employment remains limited.
• Spatial clustering of poverty and smallholder activity in Copperbelt and Lusaka highlights the need for targeted policies in these regions.

Conclusion

Zambia's economic growth has not translated into equitable employment outcomes. To address this, the report emphasizes the need for policy reforms that promote inclusive growth, productivity gains, and formalization of the labor market, especially in agriculture and agro-processing. A sectoral and regional approach is crucial for connecting vulnerable groups to high-quality jobs and ensuring that economic growth leads to reduced poverty and greater equality.