2017年-世界发展银行全球_Kosovo_Jobs_Diagnostic_96页_1mb

Kosovo Jobs Diagnostic Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of the labor market in Kosovo, focusing on employment creation, informality, skill mismatches, and the challenges faced by the workforce. It is part of the World Bank's Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) and aims to identify key constraints to job creation and outline policy priorities for improving labor market outcomes, especially for the poor and the bottom forty percent (B40).

Main Points

Economic and Demographic Context

• Economic Growth: Kosovo experienced strong GDP growth of 3.4% annually from 2008 to 2015, driven by consumption and investment, largely financed by remittances and aid.
• Domestic Savings: Negative domestic savings were a feature of the economy, with consumption being the primary growth driver.
• Sectoral Structure: The non-tradable sectors (especially services) dominate output and employment, while tradable sectors (agriculture and manufacturing) are small and uncompetitive.
• Demographics: Kosovo is one of the youngest countries in Europe, with 67.6% of the population in the working age group (15–64). The ratio of working age population to dependents is expected to increase over time, offering a demographic dividend opportunity.

Job Creation and Informality

• Formal Job Creation: Net job creation by formal firms has declined significantly over the past decade, from over 7,000 jobs in 2005 to just over 1,600 in 2014.
• Sectoral Performance: Commerce and services were the only sectors with consistent net job creation, while manufacturing has had a negative contribution since 2012.
• Informality: Informality is a significant feature of Kosovo’s labor market, with about 35% of employees working informally. This is linked to low educational levels and limited access to formal employment opportunities.
• Inactivity and Unemployment: Inactivity rates are high, particularly among women (78.6% of working age women were inactive in 2015). Unemployment rates are also high, with over a third of the labor force unemployed and youth unemployment exceeding 57%.

Skill Mismatches and Education

• Skill Shortages: There is a mismatch between the skills of the workforce and the needs of firms, especially in areas like marketing, sales, and design.
• Education Quality: Education and vocational training (VET) systems are underperforming, with limited alignment with labor market needs. Only a small percentage of firms regularly engage with educational institutions for hiring.
• PISA Performance: Kosovo's poor performance in the PISA exercise indicates the need for improving the quality and relevance of education at all levels.

Women in the Labor Market

• Gender Disparities: Women face significant labor market disadvantages, including higher inactivity rates and lower employment rates.
• Care Systems: Institutional care systems for children and the elderly are limited, making it difficult for women to participate in the labor market.
• Maternity Leave: The design of maternity leave benefits discourages employers from hiring young women, favoring men instead.

Key Policy Conclusions

Improving the Regulatory and Business Environment

• A poor business and regulatory environment hinders firm growth and encourages informality.
• Simplifying procedures for operating, growing, and closing businesses is essential.
• Reducing transaction costs and improving legal certainty will support competitiveness and attract foreign investment.

Addressing Skill Shortages and Mismatches

• Enhancing the alignment between education/training and labor market needs is crucial.
• Strengthening vocational training systems and involving the private sector in their planning and delivery will help bridge skill gaps.
• Improving the quality and relevance of education is a long-term priority to ensure better labor market outcomes.

Enabling Women to Take Advantage of Employment Opportunities

• Institutional support for family care is needed to reduce the barriers to women's participation in the labor market.
• Reforms to maternity and care leave policies can help encourage more women to enter and remain in the workforce.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that improving the regulatory environment, addressing skill mismatches, and enhancing care systems are critical for promoting job creation and utilizing the demographic dividend. These reforms can help reduce youth disenfranchisement, improve labor market participation, and contribute to sustainable shared prosperity in Kosovo.