20250402-招银国际-三一国际-00631.HK-Set_for_a_recovery_6页_1mb

SANY International (631 HK) Summary

Core Content Overview

SANY International (631 HK) is set for a recovery, with the company targeting RMB50bn in revenue and a gross margin of 24% by 2027E. This implies a revenue CAGR of 32% (2025E-2027E) and a gross margin expansion of 1.6ppt from 2024. The company's confidence in its recovery is supported by strong demand for mining trucks, a stabilization in coal mining equipment, and improving profitability in solar and oil & gas segments. The target price has been revised upward to HK$8.2 from HK$7.2, based on an unchanged 11x target P/E ratio, and the recommendation remains BUY.

Key Financial Highlights

• Revenue:

  • 2024A: RMB21.9bn (+8% YoY)
  • 2025E: RMB25.1bn (+14.6% YoY)
  • 2026E: RMB29.577bn (+17.8% YoY)
  • 2027E: RMB34.547bn (+16.8% YoY)

• Adjusted Net Profit:

  • 2024A: RMB1.85bn (-4.1% YoY)
  • 2025E: RMB2.159bn (+16.7% YoY)
  • 2026E: RMB2.690bn (+24.6% YoY)
  • 2027E: RMB3.188bn (+18.5% YoY)

• EPS (Adjusted):

  • 2024A: RMB0.58
  • 2025E: RMB0.67
  • 2026E: RMB0.84
  • 2027E: RMB1.00

• P/E Ratio:

  • 2024A: 14.2
  • 2025E: 7.2
  • 2026E: 5.8
  • 2027E: 4.9

• P/B Ratio:

  • 2024A: 1.3
  • 2025E: 1.2
  • 2026E: 1.0
  • 2027E: 0.9

• Yield:

  • 2024A: 5.5%
  • 2025E: 6.9%
  • 2026E: 8.2%

• ROE:

  • 2024A: 9.3%
  • 2025E: 16.8%
  • 2026E: 18.6%
  • 2027E: 19.4%

• Net Gearing:

  • 2024A: 17.2%
  • 2025E: 13.7%
  • 2027E: 3.4%

Segment Analysis (2024)

• Mining Equipment:

  • Revenue: RMB11.219bn (-13.4% YoY)
  • Gross profit: RMB1.278bn (-4% YoY)
  • Gross margin: 24.9% (down 0.9ppt YoY)

• Logistics Equipment:

  • Revenue: RMB8.108bn (+34.9% YoY)
  • Gross profit: RMB1.348bn (-10% YoY)
  • Gross margin: 24.0% (down 0.9ppt YoY)

• Oil & Gas Equipment:

  • Revenue: RMB1.919bn (+26.5% YoY)
  • Gross profit: RMB507mn (+157.0% YoY)
  • Gross margin: 18.3% (up 0.3ppt YoY)

• Emerging Industry Equipment:

  • Revenue: RMB2.021bn (+333.9% YoY)
  • Gross profit: RMB-432mn (-21.8% YoY)
  • Gross margin: -21.8% (down 37.5ppt YoY)

Key Growth Drivers

• Mining Trucks:

  • The 100T model has been well received, with 150 units sold YTD and a full-year target of 400 units.
  • Revenue target for 2025E: RMB1bn, with a gross margin of 30%.

• Lithium Energy:

  • Expected to reach RMB2bn in sales in 2025E (up from RMB500mn in 2024).
  • Unit cost of energy storage products: RMB430/kWh (vs. industry average of RMB460/kWh).
  • Unit cost of power batteries: RMB445/kWh (vs. industry average of RMB490/kWh).
  • Target unit cost: RMB400/kWh.

• Coal Mining Equipment:

  • Expected to see a meaningful recovery in 2H25E due to the start of the replacement cycle.
  • Segment profit growth was observed in 1Q25E, despite continued pressure in 1H25.

Shareholding and Market Performance

• Shareholding Structure:

  • Sany Heavy Equipment: 66.4%
  • Free float: 33.9%

• Market Cap: HK$16,808.6mn

• Average 3-month turnover: HK$17.0mn

• 52-week High/Low: HK$6.99/HK$3.89

• Total Issued Shares: 3,213.9mn

• Share Performance:

  • 1-month: +13.4% (Absolute), +12.2% (Relative)
  • 3-month: +16.0% (Absolute), +0.2% (Relative)
  • 6-month: -10.1% (Absolute), -18.2% (Relative)

Risk Factors

• Further weakness in coal mining activities in China.
• Higher-than-expected losses from emerging business.
• Uncertainties surrounding US tariff policy on port machinery.

Key Assumptions and Adjustments

• Revenue:

  • 2025E: RMB25.1bn (+1.0% YoY)
  • 2026E: RMB29.577bn (+4.5% YoY)
  • 2027E: RMB34.547bn (+16.8% YoY)

• Gross Margin:

  • 2025E: 25.1%
  • 2026E: 25.4%
  • 2027E: 25.4%

• Adjusted Net Profit:

  • 2025E: RMB2.159bn (+16.7% YoY)
  • 2026E: RMB2.690bn (+24.6% YoY)
  • 2027E: RMB3.188bn (+18.5% YoY)

Summary of Financial Statements

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Cash Flow

Conclusion

SANY International is positioned for a recovery, driven by strong performance in logistics equipment, oil & gas, and lithium battery segments. The company is expected to see a significant improvement in its financial metrics over the next few years, supported by a strategic focus on high-growth areas. Despite some short-term challenges, the outlook remains positive, with a revised target price and continued BUY recommendation.