20240514-招银国际-三一国际-00631.HK-Expect_an_unexciting_set_of_results_in_1Q24E,_potential_recovery_in_2H24E_7页_1mb

报告摘要

Maintain BUY rating with unchanged target price of HK$8, representing a 24.8% upside from current price.

Q1 2024E (1Q24E) Results: Expected unexciting performance with ~15% YoY net profit decline (forecast ~RMB550mn) due to miners' disciplined capital expenditure (from reduced domestic coal production), keen competition in products like hydraulic supports and wide-body trucks, and loss-making solar power segment. Revenue is expected to grow ~4% YoY (no oil & gas equipment contribution in 1Q23).
2H 2024E Recovery Potential: Anticipated recovery driven by improved solar business, low base effect in mining equipment, and strong overseas demand for large mining trucks and telescopic handlers. Logistics equipment segment expected to grow ~25% YoY from small-size port machinery and backlog for large machinery.
Current Quarter Highlights: Revenue, gross margin, and pretax profit margin expected to decrease in Q1 2024E.
Target Price: HK$8 (unchanged from previous); metrics include 11x 2024E P/E, with P/B, yield, and ROE details provided in earnings summary.

Downside risks include:
- Weakness in Chinese coal mining activities.
- Higher-than-expected losses from solar power and emerging businesses.
- Rebound in raw material costs.
- Rising debt ratio due to high capital expenditure on new businesses (e.g., solar and logistics).

Earnings Summary: Q1 2024E net profit forecast at ~RMB550mn (-15% YoY), with revenue growth ~4% YoY. EBIT and other key metrics detailed in financial tables.
Performance Metrics: Current price HK$6.41; P/E ratio 9.8x (FY23A); ROE 17.8%; net gearing -(11.8%) in 2021A.
Supporting Data: Revenue YoY growth of 30.5% (FY23A) to 31.8% (FY24E); profit growth 15.9% (FY23A) to 10.5% (FY24E). Charts and tables included for coal production, TOPCon cell prices, and other factors.