20230321-招银国际-三一国际-00631.HK-Core_net_profit_in_2022_+53__YoY_in_line_with_expectation__Margin_recovery_in_4Q_6页_1mb
报告摘要
SANY International (631 HK) Summary
Core Content and Key Financial Highlights
SANY International (631 HK) reported a core net profit of RMB1.66bn in 2022, representing a 53% YoY increase, which aligns with expectations. This growth is attributed to strong performance in both mining equipment and logistics equipment, with revenue increasing by 52% YoY to RMB10.2bn. Mining equipment revenue rose 59% YoY to RMB6.9bn, while logistics equipment revenue increased 40% YoY to RMB3.3bn.
The blended gross margin remained stable at 23.4%, indicating consistent profitability. Administrative expenses decreased to 7.6%, down 2.7ppt YoY, due to effective cost management despite R&D expenses growing by 15% YoY. Reported net profit increased by 32% YoY to RMB1.66bn, but the core net profit growth of 53% YoY excludes a one-off gain of RMB172mn from the disposal of a subsidiary in 2021.
In 4Q22, net profit surged 1.1x YoY to RMB369mn, driven by a 48% YoY revenue increase to RMB3.9bn, a 1.8ppt YoY improvement in gross margin to 23.7%, and good expense control.
Analyst View and Investment Recommendation
The analyst maintains a BUY rating with a target price of HK$13.00, which is based on a 18x 2023E P/E ratio and a 18% earnings CAGR in 2023E-25E. The target price is 74% above the current price of HK$7.47, suggesting a strong potential upside.
The analyst expects the coal mining capex upcycle to continue in 2023E, with FAI growth of +20% in 2Q23, and anticipates growth opportunities in robotic and lithium battery equipment. These sectors are seen as potential drivers of future performance.
Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | FY21A | FY22A | FY23E | FY24E | FY25E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 10,195 | 15,537 | 18,403 | 21,739 | 25,215 |
| YoY growth (%) | 38.4 | 52.4 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 16.0 |
| Adjusted net profit (RMB mn) | 1,086.7 | 1,664.9 | 1,992.7 | 2,325.5 | 2,712.8 |
| EPS (Adjusted) (RMB) | 0.35 | 0.53 | 0.63 | 0.74 | 0.86 |
| P/E (x) | 17.7 | 12.8 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 7.6 |
| P/B (x) | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Yield (%) | 1.7 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| ROE (%) | 15.2 | 17.8 | 18.5 | 18.8 | 19.1 |
| Net gearing (%) | -18.3 | -11.8 | -15.8 | -20.3 | -26.3 |
Risk Factors
- Weakness in mining activities
- Slower-than-expected progress on new product development
- Rebound of raw material costs
Post-Results Conference Call
SANYI will host a group call at 14:30 (HK time) to discuss:
- Latest backlog
- New product development
- Margin trends
Shareholding and Stock Data
- Market Cap (HK$ mn): 23,700.8
- Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn): 7.9
- 52w High/Low (HK$): 8.88 / 6.44
- Total Issued Shares (mn): 3,172.8
- Free float: 32.3%
Share Performance
| Period | Absolute (%) | Relative (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-month | -4.1 | 2.6 |
| 3-months | -8.3 | -8.7 |
| 6-months | -10.4 | -13.9 |
Analyst Certification and Disclaimers
- The analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.
- The analyst and associates have not traded in the stock within 30 days prior to the report and will not do so within 3 days after the report.
- The report is not investment advice and is based on public information.
- The report is for informational purposes only and may be subject to change without notice.
- No liability is accepted for any reliance on the information in this report.
CMBIG Ratings
- BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
- HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
- SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
- NOT RATED: Stock is not rated by CMBIGM.
Industry Outlook
- OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the market.
- MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in line with the market.
- UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the market.
Important Disclosures
- This report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.
- CMBIGM is not liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred by relying on the report.
- The report is intended for specific recipients and should not be reproduced or distributed without permission.
- No individual investment advice is provided.
- Investors are encouraged to consult a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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