> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # SANY International (631 HK) Summary ## Core Content SANY International (631 HK) reported an after-tax profit of RMB1.78bn for FY25, which is within the previously announced profit range of RMB1.60-1.85bn. Adjusted for one-off impairment loss, the adjusted attributable net profit remained flat YoY at RMB1.85bn. The company highlighted three key growth areas: large mining trucks, micro grids, and lithium power. Despite a downward revision of the 2026 earnings forecast by -6%, primarily due to lower road header sales, the overall outlook remains positive due to growth in other segments. The target price has been adjusted to HK$19.5, maintaining a BUY recommendation. ## Key Growth Drivers - **Large Mining Trucks**: - SANYI believes these are high-value products with strong global penetration potential. - Maintenance costs are 15% lower than peers, resulting in a lower total cost of ownership (TCO) for customers. - Overseas backlog is RMB3bn, with 50% of orders coming from non-coal applications (e.g., copper, gold, manganese). - **Micro Grids**: - Targets mainly mining sites, with three business models: self-owned (Africa), EPC (Asia-Pacific and Latin America), and BOT (Europe). - Gross margin for EPC is ~25%, with a payback period of ~5 years for self-owned projects. - Currently has four operational micro grid projects and 20 EPC projects on hand. - **Lithium Power**: - Lithium battery products are currently sold mainly to SANY Group. - Plans to expand production capacity to 22GWh and 33GWh in 2027 and 2028, respectively. - SANYI Group's lithium battery demand is expected to reach 30GWh and 45GWh in 2027 and 2028, indicating secured orders. - Downstream applications are expanding from commercial vehicles to wheel loaders. ## Financial Performance (FY24A to FY26E) | Metric | FY24A (RMB mn) | FY25A (RMB mn) | FY26E (RMB mn) | |-----------------------|---------------|---------------|---------------| | Revenue | 21,910 | 24,334 | 30,043 | | YoY Growth (%) | 8.0 | 11.1 | 23.5 | | Adjusted Net Profit | 1,850 | 2,813 | 3,694 | | YoY Growth (%) | 0.1 | 52.0 | 31.3 | | EPS (Adjusted) | 0.57 | 0.87 | 1.14 | | P/E (x) | 18.7 | 11.9 | 9.1 | | P/B (x) | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | | Yield (%) | 3.1 | 4.6 | 5.5 | | ROE (%) | 14.0 | 20.0 | 23.0 | | Net Gearing (%) | 13.0 | 8.1 | 7.9 | ## Earnings Summary (1H24 to 2H25) | Segment | 1H24 (RMB mn) | 1H25 (RMB mn) | YoY Growth (%) | |-----------------------|---------------|---------------|----------------| | Mining Equipment | 6,100 | 4,960 | -18.7% | | Sales | 5,938 | 4,637 | -21.9% | | Others | 161 | 323 | 100.4% | | Logistics Equipment | 3,377 | 3,762 | 11.4% | | Sales | 3,282 | 3,680 | 12.1% | | Others | 95 | 82 | -13.2% | | Oil & Gas Equipment | 862 | 1,342 | 55.6% | | Sales | 846 | 1,325 | 56.6% | | Others | 16 | 17 | 2.6% | | Emerging Industry Equipment | 702 | 2,619 | 273.1% | | Sales | 690 | 2,594 | 276.2% | | Others | 12 | 25 | 99.1% | | Total Sales | 10,756 | 12,237 | 13.8% | ## Segment EBIT (1H24 to 2H25) | Segment | 1H24 (RMB mn) | 2H24 (RMB mn) | 1H25 (RMB mn) | YoY Growth (%) | |-----------------------|---------------|---------------|---------------|----------------| | Mining Equipment | 903 | 731 | 4,444 | -13.2% | | Logistics Machinery | 568 | 272 | 5,200 | 9.9% | | Oil & Gas Equipment | 862 | 1,057 | 1,454 | 37.5% | | Emerging Industry Equipment | 702 | 1,319 | 2,231 | 69.1% | | Total Segment Results | 1,180 | 1,003 | 956 | -4.7% | ## Key Assumptions and Changes | Metric | Old (2026E) | New (2026E) | Change (%) | |-----------------------|----------------|----------------|---------------| | Revenue | 1,969 | 1,491 | -24.3% | | CCMU | 1,310 | 1,372 | 4.8% | | Small-size Logistics | 5,857 | 5,528 | -5.6% | | Large-size Port | 3,998 | 4,154 | 3.9% | | Mining Trucks | 4,893 | 5,136 | 5.0% | | After Sales Service | 2,649 | 2,650 | 0.0% | | Lithium Battery | 3,555 | 4,005 | 12.7% | | Oil and Gas Equipment | 2,850 | 3,161 | 10.9% | | Solar Power | 2,542 | 2,311 | -9.1% | | Hydrogen | 68 | 174 | 155.4% | | Average Growth | 52.4% | 11.1% | 23.5% | | Blended Gross Margin | 23.4% | 22.3% | 24.0% | ## Risks - Further weakness in coal mining activities in China. - Implementation of coal output quota reduction in Indonesia. - Slowdown in emerging business. - Cost inflation due to elevated commodity prices. ## Shareholding and Stock Performance - **Shareholding Structure**: - Sany Heavy Equipment: 64.9% - Free float: 33.9% - **Stock Data**: - Market Cap: HK$37,916.3 million - Average 3-month turnover: HK$160.2 million - 52-week High/Low: HK$15.97 / HK$4.42 - Total Issued Shares: 3,232.4 million - **Share Performance (12-mth)**: - Absolute: 44.3% - Relative: 53.2% ## Related Reports - SANYI (BUY) – Profit in 2025 a negative surprise; Looking for improvement in 2026 – 22 Mar 2026 - SANYI (BUY) - Mining truck gaining traction; Higher earnings forecast and TP - 20 Feb 2026 - Capital Goods - Key themes in 2026; Focus on Mining equipment + Power for data centres + Replacement cycle - 1 Dec 2025 ## P/E and P/B Bands - **P/E Band**: - 2026E: 20x - 2027E: 17x - 2028E: 15x - **P/B Band**: - 2026E: 2.2x - 2027E: 2.0x - 2028E: 1.7x ## Financial Summary | Metric | 2023A (RMB mn) | 2024A (RMB mn) | 2025A (RMB mn) | 2026E (RMB mn) | |-------------------------|----------------|----------------|----------------|----------------| | Revenue | 20,278 | 21,910 | 24,334 | 30,043 | | Gross Profit | 5,447 | 4,913 | 5,424 | 7,197 | | Net Profit | 1,929 | 1,102 | 1,779 | 2,813 | | Adjusted Net Profit | 1,929 | 1,850 | 1,851 | 2,813 | | EBITDA | 2,751 | 2,249 | 3,283 | 4,579 | | Total Assets | 34,963 | 40,928 | 44,921 | 48,406 | | Total Liabilities | 23,425 | 28,752 | 31,752 | 33,512 | | Total Equity | 11,589 | 12,221 | 13,192 | 14,959 | | Net Cash from Operations | 2,524 | 2,152 | 2,457 | 3,063 | ## Conclusion SANY International is focusing on diversifying its business into high-growth areas such as large mining trucks, micro grids, and lithium power. The company's financial performance shows a positive trajectory with increased revenue and profit in the coming years. Despite a revision in the 2026 earnings forecast, the overall growth outlook remains favorable. The target price has been adjusted to HK$19.5, and the stock is currently trading at HK$11.73, with a BUY recommendation. The company's financial health and market position are strong, with a clear focus on long-term growth and diversification.