20260402-招银国际-三一国际-00631.HK-Multiple_growth_drivers_ahead_7页_1mb

报告摘要

SANY International (631 HK) Summary

Core Content

SANY International (631 HK) reported an after-tax profit of RMB1.78bn for FY25, which is within the previously announced profit range of RMB1.60-1.85bn. Adjusted for one-off impairment loss, the adjusted attributable net profit remained flat YoY at RMB1.85bn. The company highlighted three key growth areas: large mining trucks, micro grids, and lithium power. Despite a downward revision of the 2026 earnings forecast by -6%, primarily due to lower road header sales, the overall outlook remains positive due to growth in other segments. The target price has been adjusted to HK$19.5, maintaining a BUY recommendation.

Key Growth Drivers

Large Mining Trucks:
- SANYI believes these are high-value products with strong global penetration potential.
- Maintenance costs are 15% lower than peers, resulting in a lower total cost of ownership (TCO) for customers.
- Overseas backlog is RMB3bn, with 50% of orders coming from non-coal applications (e.g., copper, gold, manganese).
Micro Grids:
- Targets mainly mining sites, with three business models: self-owned (Africa), EPC (Asia-Pacific and Latin America), and BOT (Europe).
- Gross margin for EPC is ~25%, with a payback period of ~5 years for self-owned projects.
- Currently has four operational micro grid projects and 20 EPC projects on hand.
Lithium Power:
- Lithium battery products are currently sold mainly to SANY Group.
- Plans to expand production capacity to 22GWh and 33GWh in 2027 and 2028, respectively.
- SANYI Group's lithium battery demand is expected to reach 30GWh and 45GWh in 2027 and 2028, indicating secured orders.
- Downstream applications are expanding from commercial vehicles to wheel loaders.

Financial Performance (FY24A to FY26E)

Metric	FY24A (RMB mn)	FY25A (RMB mn)	FY26E (RMB mn)
Revenue	21,910	24,334	30,043
YoY Growth (%)	8.0	11.1	23.5
Adjusted Net Profit	1,850	2,813	3,694
YoY Growth (%)	0.1	52.0	31.3
EPS (Adjusted)	0.57	0.87	1.14
P/E (x)	18.7	11.9	9.1
P/B (x)	2.5	2.2	2.0
Yield (%)	3.1	4.6	5.5
ROE (%)	14.0	20.0	23.0
Net Gearing (%)	13.0	8.1	7.9

Earnings Summary (1H24 to 2H25)

Segment	1H24 (RMB mn)	1H25 (RMB mn)	YoY Growth (%)
Mining Equipment	6,100	4,960	-18.7%
Sales	5,938	4,637	-21.9%
Others	161	323	100.4%
Logistics Equipment	3,377	3,762	11.4%
Sales	3,282	3,680	12.1%
Others	95	82	-13.2%
Oil & Gas Equipment	862	1,342	55.6%
Sales	846	1,325	56.6%
Others	16	17	2.6%
Emerging Industry Equipment	702	2,619	273.1%
Sales	690	2,594	276.2%
Others	12	25	99.1%
Total Sales	10,756	12,237	13.8%

Segment EBIT (1H24 to 2H25)

Segment	1H24 (RMB mn)	2H24 (RMB mn)	1H25 (RMB mn)	YoY Growth (%)
Mining Equipment	903	731	4,444	-13.2%
Logistics Machinery	568	272	5,200	9.9%
Oil & Gas Equipment	862	1,057	1,454	37.5%
Emerging Industry Equipment	702	1,319	2,231	69.1%
Total Segment Results	1,180	1,003	956	-4.7%

Key Assumptions and Changes

Metric	Old (2026E)	New (2026E)	Change (%)
Revenue	1,969	1,491	-24.3%
CCMU	1,310	1,372	4.8%
Small-size Logistics	5,857	5,528	-5.6%
Large-size Port	3,998	4,154	3.9%
Mining Trucks	4,893	5,136	5.0%
After Sales Service	2,649	2,650	0.0%
Lithium Battery	3,555	4,005	12.7%
Oil and Gas Equipment	2,850	3,161	10.9%
Solar Power	2,542	2,311	-9.1%
Hydrogen	68	174	155.4%
Average Growth	52.4%	11.1%	23.5%
Blended Gross Margin	23.4%	22.3%	24.0%

Risks

Further weakness in coal mining activities in China.
Implementation of coal output quota reduction in Indonesia.
Slowdown in emerging business.
Cost inflation due to elevated commodity prices.

Shareholding and Stock Performance

Shareholding Structure:
- Sany Heavy Equipment: 64.9%
- Free float: 33.9%
Stock Data:
- Market Cap: HK$37,916.3 million
- Average 3-month turnover: HK$160.2 million
- 52-week High/Low: HK$15.97 / HK$4.42
- Total Issued Shares: 3,232.4 million
Share Performance (12-mth):
- Absolute: 44.3%
- Relative: 53.2%

Related Reports

SANYI (BUY) – Profit in 2025 a negative surprise; Looking for improvement in 2026 – 22 Mar 2026
SANYI (BUY) - Mining truck gaining traction; Higher earnings forecast and TP - 20 Feb 2026
Capital Goods - Key themes in 2026; Focus on Mining equipment + Power for data centres + Replacement cycle - 1 Dec 2025

P/E and P/B Bands

P/E Band:
- 2026E: 20x
- 2027E: 17x
- 2028E: 15x
P/B Band:
- 2026E: 2.2x
- 2027E: 2.0x
- 2028E: 1.7x

Financial Summary

Metric	2023A (RMB mn)	2024A (RMB mn)	2025A (RMB mn)	2026E (RMB mn)
Revenue	20,278	21,910	24,334	30,043
Gross Profit	5,447	4,913	5,424	7,197
Net Profit	1,929	1,102	1,779	2,813
Adjusted Net Profit	1,929	1,850	1,851	2,813
EBITDA	2,751	2,249	3,283	4,579
Total Assets	34,963	40,928	44,921	48,406
Total Liabilities	23,425	28,752	31,752	33,512
Total Equity	11,589	12,221	13,192	14,959
Net Cash from Operations	2,524	2,152	2,457	3,063

Conclusion

SANY International is focusing on diversifying its business into high-growth areas such as large mining trucks, micro grids, and lithium power. The company's financial performance shows a positive trajectory with increased revenue and profit in the coming years. Despite a revision in the 2026 earnings forecast, the overall growth outlook remains favorable. The target price has been adjusted to HK$19.5, and the stock is currently trading at HK$11.73, with a BUY recommendation. The company's financial health and market position are strong, with a clear focus on long-term growth and diversification.

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