2023-01-14-GP_Bullhound-2022年第三季度电子商务报告_25页_1mb

Q3 2022 Digital Commerce Sector Summary

Core Content

Q3 2022 saw continued evolution and transformation within the Digital Commerce sector, driven by technological advancements, shifting consumer behaviors, and strategic M&A activity. The report highlights key trends in the agri sector, education gamification, and personalisation in retail, alongside notable transaction activity and valuation benchmarks.

Main Trends

1. The Agri Sector is Transforming Thanks to Digital Adoption

• Digital Adoption: Over 85% of farmers are now selling and buying online, a 790% increase from a decade ago.
• Benefits of Ecommerce:
  • Increases market efficiency and reduces waste.
  • Improves income and profitability margins for farmers.
  • Enables higher quality produce and supports boutique producers.
  • Democratises the market, allowing smallholders to compete with big producers.
• Market Growth: The online agriculture market was valued at $11bn in 2021, expected to grow at an 8.2% CAGR until 2026.
• Examples: Pinduoduo, Agriconomie, Frubana, and Kisaan Trade are notable platforms driving this transformation.

2. Gamification of Education is Increasingly Popular

• Market Growth: The Game-Based Learning Market is projected to reach $62bn by 2030, growing at a 21% CAGR from 2022.
• Drivers of Growth:
  • Shift to online learning due to the pandemic.
  • EU's digital education plan (2021-2027).
• Impact on Engagement:
  • 67% of students found gamified learning more motivating.
  • 35% increase in student performance with challenge-based gamification.
  • At work, gamification increased learning engagement by 30% and desire to be engaged by 30%.

3. Personalisation is Becoming an Important CX Differentiator

• Consumer Preferences: 80% of consumers are more likely to make a purchase if offered a personalised experience.
• Pandemic Impact: 75% of consumers experienced new shopping methods during the pandemic.
• Retailer Investment: 75% of retailers plan to increase investment in personalisation efforts over the next three years.
• Performance Impact: Consumers spend 40% more and are 110% more likely to add additional items to their basket with tailored experiences.
• Technological Advancements: Retailers like Amazon, Sephora, and Nike use AI and ML for advanced personalisation across digital and physical channels.

Key Transactions and News

• Major M&A Deals:

  • Instacart acquired Rosie (Sep-22)
  • Alibaba.com acquired Lazada (Sep-22) – valued at $379m
  • Prosus acquired iFood (Aug-22) – valued at $1,774m
  • Shopify acquired Delierr (Jul-22) – valued at $2,500m
  • China Post acquired邮乐 ule.com (Jul-22) – valued at $128m

• Selected IPOs:

  • Zamaz (Sep-22) – offering $5m, market cap $80m, -6% change
  • J-FFSBRANDS (Aug-22) – offering $16m, market cap $9m, -62% change
  • Treasure Global Inc (Aug-22) – offering $8m, market cap $34m, -89% change
  • SOCAR (Aug-22) – offering $78m, market cap $384m, -39% change
  • Gigacloud Logistics (Aug-22) – offering $36m, market cap $411m, -36% change
  • Deezer (Jul-22) – offering $1,160m, market cap $415m, -38% change

Valuation Trends

• Digital Commerce Sell-Off: Valuations have declined, with prices returning to 2017 levels for online travel and ecommerce.
• Valuation Benchmarks:
  • Large Cap:
    • Amazon: Market cap $1.15tn, EV/Revenue 2.7x, Gross margin 42%
    • Alibaba: Market cap $211bn, EV/Revenue 1.6x, Gross margin 9%
    • Pinduoduo: Market cap $79bn, EV/Revenue 4.8x, Gross margin 66%
    • JD.com: Market cap $76bn, EV/Revenue 0.5x, Gross margin 9%
    • Prosus: Market cap $72bn, EV/Revenue 11.7x, Gross margin 31%
    • eBay: Market cap $20bn, EV/Revenue 2.4x, Gross margin 75%
    • Pinterest: Market cap $15bn, EV/Revenue 5.1x, Gross margin 79%
  • Ecommerce:
    • VIP Shop: Market cap $5.3bn, EV/Revenue 0.2x, Gross margin 20%
    • Zalando: Market cap $5.1bn, EV/Revenue 0.5x, Gross margin 42%
    • The RealReal: Market cap $1.6bn, EV/Revenue 1.5x, Gross margin 55%
    • ASOS: Market cap $632m, EV/Revenue 0.2x, Gross margin 49%
    • boohoo.com: Market cap $502m, EV/Revenue 0.3x, Gross margin 54%
    • Stitch Fix: Market cap $438m, EV/Revenue 0.2x, Gross margin 44%

Future Outlook

• Emerging Technologies: VR and the metaverse are expected to play a significant role in enhancing learning experiences.
• M&A Activity: As the market matures and grows at >20% annually, we anticipate more M&A activity as companies seek to consolidate and expand.
• Public Listings: Q3 2022 saw limited IPO activity, but there are still several companies expected to go public in the next 12 months.

Summary of Key Players

• Amazon: Dominates the digital commerce landscape with advanced personalisation and high gross margins.
• Alibaba: A leading player in the ecommerce market, with strong growth and high market valuation.
• Pinduoduo: A key agri ecommerce platform, facilitating access to niche producers.
• Prosus: Acquired iFood, demonstrating strategic expansion in the food delivery sector.
• Shopify: Acquired Delierr, expanding its logistics and fulfillment capabilities.
• Deezer: A subscription-based audio streaming service with a significant market cap.

Conclusion

The Digital Commerce sector in Q3 2022 continues to evolve with digital adoption playing a crucial role in transforming traditional industries like agriculture and education. Personalisation is becoming a key differentiator in retail, with companies investing heavily in technologies to enhance customer experience. Despite a decline in valuations, significant M&A activity and a few successful IPOs indicate ongoing interest and investment in the sector.