2011年-世界发展银行全球_Philippines_-_Typhoons_Ondoy_and_Pepeng___Post-Disaster_Needs_Assessment_-_Executive_Summary_8页_7mb

Summary of Post-Disaster Needs Assessment for Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng in the Philippines

A. The Disaster

Tropical storm Ondoy (Ketsana), a Category I typhoon, struck the Philippines on September 26, 2009, causing widespread flooding, particularly in the central part of Luzon. The storm brought an unusually high rainfall of approximately 450 mm in 12 hours at the Manila Observatory, which exceeded the Marikina River's carrying capacity. Typhoon Pepeng (Parma), a Category III storm, followed from October 3 to 9, 2009, with gusts up to 230 km/hr and cumulative rainfall exceeding 1,000 mm in some areas. The combined disasters resulted in 956 deaths, 84 missing persons, and 736 injured, affecting over 9.3 million people out of an estimated population of 43.2 million in the affected regions.

B. Economic and Social Impacts

The economic and social impacts of Ondoy and Pepeng were substantial, equivalent to about 2.7% of the Philippines' GDP. The disasters hit regions that account for over 60% of the country's GDP, including the National Capital Region (NCR), which contributes around 38% of the total GDP.

• Economic Impact: The damage and losses amounted to approximately US$4.38 billion, with 90% of the total impact on the private sector and 10% on the public sector.
• Poverty Impact: The PDNA estimated that the incidence of poverty could increase by 3 percentage points in the most affected areas of Luzon and by 0.5 percentage points nationwide, potentially adding 480,000 more poor people in 2009.
• Employment and Livelihoods: About 170 million workdays were lost, equivalent to around 664,000 one-year jobs. Total income loss was PHP 50.3 billion, disproportionately affecting informal workers.
• GDP Impact: The disaster is expected to reduce GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points in 2009 but increase it by 0.4 percentage points in 2010, with a net GDP growth of 1.0% in 2009 and 3.5% in 2010 due to recovery and reconstruction spending.

C. Damage, Losses, and Needs Assessment

The PDNA identified total damage and losses of US$4.38 billion, with a significant portion affecting productive and social sectors. The assessment also outlined recovery and reconstruction needs, which amount to US$4.42 billion over the short to medium term (2009–2012).

D. Recovery and Reconstruction Strategy

Five key areas were identified for focus in the recovery and reconstruction process:

1. Rural Production: Immediate restoration of rural livelihoods is essential to prevent loss of production during the dry season. This includes repairing irrigation systems, clearing fields, providing inputs like seeds and fertilizers, and offering financial support through vouchers or direct cash transfers.
2. Flood Management: Institutional reforms, comprehensive planning, and investment in both restoration and new infrastructure are needed to protect Metro Manila. This includes restoring existing systems, establishing real-time monitoring, and creating a new institutional structure for flood management across the entire catchment area.
3. Housing: The focus should be on providing better housing alternatives for informal settlers. Resettlement must consider proximity to livelihoods and involve community consultation. Vertical densification and private sector involvement can help develop affordable housing solutions.
4. Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM): The DRRM system needs to become more proactive and effective. This includes improving scientific data for disaster prediction, mainstreaming DRRM into local planning, and upgrading critical infrastructure. A shift towards risk transfer mechanisms like contingency financing and catastrophe pooling is recommended.
5. Local Governance: LGUs should play a central role in recovery and future risk mitigation. They require targeted financial assistance and technical support to restore operations and implement disaster mitigation measures. Collaboration between the national government, private sector, and civil society is essential.

E. Guiding Principles for Recovery and Reconstruction

The recovery and reconstruction program will be guided by the following principles:

• Transparency, Accountability, and Results-Based Approach:

  • Monitoring systems, fund tracking, and project evaluation will be implemented.
  • Regular public reporting through meetings, media, and a dedicated website will ensure transparency.
  • Audits and independent complaints mechanisms will be integrated into major projects.

• Community-Based, People-Centered, and Equitable Approaches:

  • Local communities will be involved in decision-making, implementation, and monitoring.
  • Projects will prioritize local knowledge, skills, and affordable materials.
  • Special attention will be given to vulnerable groups such as the poor, female-headed households, children, the elderly, and people with disabilities.
  • Capacity building for local communities will be emphasized to reduce future disaster vulnerability.

• Reduction of Future Risks:

  • Integrated disaster risk management plans should be developed to address all likely hazards.
  • These plans should be informed by risk assessments and include measures to enhance the resilience of the region against future typhoons and flooding.