2025-06-10-花旗集团-韩国经济_强劲的经常账户盈余与证券投资流动的转变_12页_323kb

South Korea Economic Summary

Current Account Surplus

• Robust current account surplus expected to persist at ~5.3% of GDP in 2025E.
• April surplus narrowed to $5.7bn vs. March's $9.1bn, driven by wider customs trade surplus due to declining imports.
• US tariffs on exports may be offset by strong chip exports and reduced import growth, despite ongoing trade contraction.

Portfolio Investment Flows

• Foreign investors shifted to purchasing Korean equities following an August 2024-April 2025 sell-off.
• Korean retail outbound portfolio investments moderated in May-early June.
• National Pension Service (NPS) may temporarily expand foreign investments if the KRW strengthens significantly against USD, targeting a 38.9% foreign equity allocation by end-2026.
• NPS could decrease FX hedges if USD/KRW falls below 1358 and increase hedges if it rises above 1470.

Key Developments

• Bank of Korea (BoK) increased long forward positions and reduced FX reserves in response to forex rate volatility in January-April 2025.